Plan to Zero (#21) It starts with Storage.

In this portion we start to form a plan which will continue for several weeks.

Depending on which report you read, by 2050 the US grid needs to make and move between 220 and 280 percent of what it did in 2020. New capacity installation of wind is currently 40% of renewables, and Solar is 60% (2021-2). Some non-renewable generation will be added to meet the 2050 goals (likely nuclear if we push).
To firm the future generation, storage is required, a massive amount of storage. Ideally, we are talking about 500 GW of demand and 50 to 100 hours of that storage. That is Terawatt hours of storage, a mind-boggling ten of trillions of dollars in Lithium based batteries [Musk’s math is wrong].

The reality is lithium does not belong as stationary storage. Rather pumped hydro in Ludington type facilities is what we need.
The Japanese on Okinawa have proven that salt water pumped hydro is not only possible but is proven to operate for 50 plus years. It is possible to build pumped hydro islands near shore. There are 30 or 40 good sites around the US for large Ludington type facilities. Five or six exist on the Great Lakes, 2 or 3 on the Finger Lakes, 3 offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, 6-12 along the Atlantic coast, and 4-14 on the West Coast. All are capable of hosting at least 10 Gigawatts of pumped storage, some able to host up to 100 GW.
Likely like the great projects of the 1920s and 30s, these will have to be government-chartered corporations (think TVA and BPA). This keeps the debt off the Federal books, similar to what was done with TVA and BPA. The corporations would run their organizations to pay off the debt over 40 years while breaking even otherwise.

When all is done, we are likely to have the equivalent of Lake Michigan not once but twice in these new storage islands. Currently the total electrical energy storage in North America is less than 5 minutes (if we could use it all at once) of average summer usage. We are adding capacity at less than 20 seconds per year.
This type of storage at this magnitude is beyond the thinking of any one from the government that I have had the opportunity to chat with, from many of the industry experts I get a lot of laughs or blank stares.
A few weeks later, in many cases, they want to talk.
If we can firm renewables and provide enough energy to ride through heat domes and polar vortex events, then we can support 100% renewables, anything short of being able to do this means that some fossil fuel ends up in the mix. That fossil fuel will likely come in the worst form, backup generation.

NOTE: This is the first of several articles, storage will appear again in the series when we get to distribution and customers. Nuclear will also appear in the series (of which this is part 21).
NEXT: Regulatory reform.
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