Follow up to the ongoing 'Plan to Zero' articles:
Secretary Granholm posted “DEPLOY, DEPLOY, DEPLOY” recently
There is one issue:
134 weeks for a service transformer, 144 weeks of a current transformer (CT) of revenue grade, 120 weeks for a substation transformer (Based on forecasts from 3 distributors). These used to be less than 6 months from order to delivery.
Critical storm spares at an all-time low. A major hurricane making landfall next summer could lead to months of outage for some customers.
The industry wants to go fast, the reality is manufacturing does not exist to support going fast.
Hitachi has announced a modest transformer manufacturing plant expansion, G&W double plant size, the rest of the North American manufacturing base – not so much as a peep has crossed my desk.
10,000 Automotive dealerships need at least a 500KVA transformer and 5,00 truck stops need a new substation. Lead times? Over 100 weeks. Plans for 50,000 new chargers – delayed for transformers and switch gear. Likely plans made in 2022 will be built in 2025.
Transformer grade electric steel (the stuff that gets wound to make a core), is an overseas purchase.
In fact, all most everything that we need to build a better grid or interconnect renewables is constrained, and a large portion must be sourced overseas.
If the US grid were to have more weekends where 8 to 10 substations were damaged by vandalism, likely portions of the grid could not be repaired until spring at the earliest.
WAKE UP!
If the energy transition is important, if providing power to everyone is important, then being able to manufacture what is needed to do that in a reasonable amount of time is too.
Yes, DOE has money to loan in the #LPO, but there is nothing in the tax code, or the energy policy that provides a leg up for building new manufacturing for grid equipment. States mostly find the idea “not sexy”, so they are not offering much help.
Utilities need to push suppliers to build it locally. States need to offer sites and help. The Federal government needs to step up and help. And the vendors need to realize that time is money and start improving their supply chain.
The goal should be 50% on shore manufacturing of all materials, components, and equipment by 2030 with a lead time of no more than 36 weeks. By 2035 it should be 70% (which with the growth in construction will likely be a three times today’s pace).
Or, when you do wake up, it will be in the dark. #DOD this is a national security issue.
2023 may have the lowest renewable commissioning in a decade.