Are we on the cusp of a nuclear resurgence? In March 2024, Amazon acquired a new 1,200-acre Pennsylvania cloud campus from Talen Energy. The site is powered directly by the adjacent Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, a two-reactor nuclear plant.
The fact that it’s less than an hour’s drive from Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the site of 1979’s Three Mile Island disaster, didn't merit much press coverage. What could make memories so short? Blame rising energy costs, the sluggish pace of the renewables transition, and an energy-hungry AI industry that needs new options to power its hyperscale data centres.
Onto the stage step small modular reactors (SMRs). First trialed by the US military in the 1950s, they only became commercially viable in 2007 when a team at Oregon State University demonstrated the first working model.
Essentially scaled-down versions of existing light water reactors, they need about 7 hectares of land compared to 259 for a traditional reactor. Their components are built in factories, then shipped and assembled on-site.
That shortens construction times to about 3-5 years and keeps costs at about $1-3 billion versus the tens of billions – and sometimes decades – required to bring a full-scale plant to fruition.
The nuclear industry calls SMRs a ‘convenient, cost-effective and low-emission energy solution.’ Even formerly nuclear-skeptic EU policymakers are now waxing lyrical about their potential to accelerate industrial decarbonization.
Richard Stainsby, Chief Technologist for Advanced Reactors at global infrastructure consultancy Jacobs, told me that some SMRs with specialized cooling systems “can produce heat at temperatures above 500°C for industrial applications, including synthetic aviation fuel, carbon-free hydrogen, and other high-temperature processes.”
But he highlights applications beyond heavy industry, including the generation of “cost-effective electricity for export to a national grid or to support remote communities with combined heat and power. They can also be located on sites with either limited space or limited availability of water for cooling.”
Jacobs has been engaged by the UK’s National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) to help build the business case for additional R&D investment in a new advanced modular reactor (AMR) concept.
AMR’s are specialized SMRs for energy-intensive manufacturing that promise “to contribute to one of the most challenging aspects of energy transition – the decarbonization of heavy industry such as steel and cement production,” said Jacobs Vice President Andy White in a statement.
Emma Vernon, VP for Government and New Build at NNL, said the project, which is being jointly developed with the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, “will help UK industry adapt to a changing world and take a step closer to achieving our net-zero goals.”
Potential Pitfalls
Figures from Precedence Research valued the SMR market at around $6 billion last year and predicted it would reach $8.6 billion by 2032, an annual compound growth rate of 3%. Compare that to, say, the projected US market for biomass power generation, which was worth over $120 billion in 2021. SMRs seem headed for steady growth, but the overall numbers aren’t Earth-shaking.
Another report by the UK’s New Nuclear Watch Institute forecasts that the total installed capacity of a future SMR ‘fleet’ globally could be in the region of 150 to 170 gigawatts (GW) by mid-century. Given that the world consumed more than 178,000 Terawatt hours TWh in 2022, that’s a drop in the bucket.
What’s holding SMRs back?
- Concerns About Radioactive Waste. A 2022 study by researchers at Stanford University and the University of British Columbia suggests that SMRs could generate more radioactive waste than conventional nuclear power plants.
- The Cost of Power They Produce. A 2023 analysis by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in the US found that the unsubsidized price of electricity from the high-profile (but later canceled) NuScale SMR project in Idaho would have been more than $100 per MWh, “significantly higher than the $24 per MWh from onshore wind and utility-scale solar.”
- The Risk of Nuclear Proliferation. Any state or terrorist organization looking to develop atomic weapons capability currently faces significant roadblocks to any attempt to procure highly enriched uranium or plutonium. If SMRs are going to be widely deployed – particularly in remote areas – they will need to prove that cyber and physical security, safeguards, material control, and audits have been built into their designs.
How Green Are Those Electrons?
The nuclear industry has tried for years to position fission-driven steam turbines as a form of sustainable energy.
“The proposition of nuclear power as a sustainable energy source is fundamentally robust due to its innate energy density, and its internalization of health and environmental costs,” wrote the World Nuclear Association in an April 2024 blog.
Do SMRs make the case more compelling? Jacobs’ Richard Stainsby thinks so:
“The main advantage of nuclear power plants, including SMRs, is their reliable contribution to baseload requirements for carbon-free electricity. Unlike (traditional) renewables, heat and power from nuclear plants are available on demand without the need for energy storage.”
Small modular reactors, he says – particularly those that can flex output between heat and electricity – can “load-follow and serve to complement the intermittent nature of renewables,” while their ability to provide heat output for industrial applications “aids the decarbonization of industry, which would otherwise prove difficult with renewable energy sources that are typically limited in terms of temperature output.”
Nuclear, he adds, complements renewables like wind, solar, and hydro and should be factored into the overall mix “to meet today’s energy requirements while working towards reducing carbon footprint,” rather than being seen as a transitional step.
Competing for the Top Spot
The NNL’s advanced modular reactor concept will have to compete with at least 25 other SMR designs for funding and market uptake. In its 2023 report, the New Nuclear Watch Institute identified five that have a first-mover advantage:
VOYGR (NuScale, USA)
Despite early setbacks at its demonstration project at the Idaho National Laboratory in the US, NNWI predicts that NuScale’s VOYGR SMR will command close to a tenth of the world’s installed capacity by 2050.
BWRX-300 (GE/Hitachi, USA)
The BWRX-300 SMR is designed to reduce exposure to ‘security of supply’ risks, relying on standard boiling water reactor fuel assemblies. Its components can be built and assembled in a factory with improved construction methods that lower overall project costs.
RITM-200 (Rosatom, Russia)
The RITM series SMRs, developed by Rosatom, are designed mainly for off-grid use: icebreakers, floating power plants, and small onshore nuclear plants. It aims to deliver an all-in-one business model that accommodates remote and mobile operations.
ACP-100 (CNNC, China)
The ACP-100 from the China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) is designed for both land and floating platforms plus various co-generation applications. It offers an optimized manufacturing model that incorporates cost-saving construction techniques.
XE-100 (X-energy, USA)
The XE-100 reactor from private US firm X-energy is a high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) for industrial applications. NNWI says it’s poised to capture a significant market share, potentially reaching 7% by 2050.
Reconsidering Nuclear's Merits
Atomic energy has always been viewed with a measure of suspicion, but the Fukushima disaster seemed to signal that its time had passed. Today, energy firms and governments are reconsidering the merits of nuclear energy, largely on the promise of small modular reactors.
Reality Check
Meanwhile, Russia’s floating SMR power plant, the Akademik Lomonosov, launched in 2019 and deployed in the Arctic, is the first – and still the only – SMR project to achieve full-fledged commercial operation.
Others are waiting to set sail, but it remains to be seen if tech giants, governments, and investors can provide enough impetus to make a global impact.
The US Department of Energy says SMRs are “a key part of its goal to develop safe, clean, and affordable nuclear power,” while pro-nuke influencers are making their presence felt on social media, pulling followers and staunchly supporting new builds with what they say is a balanced view of current risks and benefits.