A๐ 440-word๐2.5-minute๐ read
The speculation over OBBAโs impact on renewables will continue for some time.
Rhodium Group โ a pro clean energy firm โ predicts that the reduction in clean energy installations over the next 10 years could range from 267 GW to 790 GW depending on the chosen emissions scenario.
Like many of these analyses, they only account for projected reductions in selected clean technologies. They rarely factor in potential increases of alternative technologies. ย
Nevertheless, any analysis of the impact to renewables offers useful fodder for the industryโs lobbying efforts. What they donโt offer is the impact to the overall power generation landscape.
The solar industry now touts itself as essential to energy security. It claims it is best positioned for rapid deployment to address our growing energy needs. The argument conveniently ignores the massive interconnection backlogs. However, there is some truth in the position.
The companion argument supporting its claim is that lead times for gas turbines now stretch between 3 to 5 years. Thatโs also true today, although I suspect gas turbine manufacturers will work to shorten those times.
The problem is that the shortage of gas turbines is a byproduct of the race to renewables. The almost exclusive focus on net-zero energy technologies made financing gas plants near impossible. In response, the industry cut forecasts and production.
Of course, that was the intent of the renewables industry. Except they didnโt count on the breaks being slammed on their efforts. Yet the Republicans desire to do just that was the byproduct of a strategy that alienated many. That was an unintended consequence.
Supporters of climate change simply couldnโt imagine a world where anyone would be adamantly opposed to their efforts. Hubris played a role, but thatโs what happens when pragmatism is replaced by zealousness.
Hereโs the bigger problem: the use of coal will be prolonged. According to the Energy Information Agency, in the U.S., 27 gigawatts of coal capacity is scheduled to come offline by 2028. That isnโt going to happen.
Earlier this year I analyzed the impact of replacing all coal and oil power generation with gas, and how doing so would greatly reduce emissions. Most of the benefit would come from eliminating coal, which should be a global priority.
The unfortunate situation we now face in the U.S. is an extended life for coal. At a minimum, the next three years will be a policy-friendly environment for coal, and fossil fuels in general. Beyond that, who knows.
And thatโs the problem. The path the climate movement has followed has needlessly politicized the effort. And that is an unintended, yet not unexpected result of overzealousness.
#renewables #climatechange #fossilfuels #oilandgasindustry #netzero #coal