Nuclear Energy, Irrational Exuberance, and National Security
This is a brief summary of a long and well-researched article by Kenneth Luongo. He is the president and founder of the Partnership for Global Security (PGS) and the Center for a Secure Nuclear Future.
This report explores the current state of the U.S. nuclear energy sector under the Trump administration, highlighting both the ambitious goals and the significant risks involved:
Overview of Strategy and Risks
"Trump's Nuclear Torrent": The administration’s strategy is to "supercharge" all pathways to success to overcome bureaucratic inertia and regulatory impediments1.
Market Vulnerability: While risk-taking is necessary to resurrect the industry, there are concerns that an "irrationally exuberant" bubble or the promotion of flawed technologies could lead to a sector meltdown and harm national security.
Investor Hesitation: Finance professionals are wary of funding unproven reactors without strong government backstops, citing concerns over timescales and rising costs/
The Pilot Program and Technical Challenges
July 4, 2026 Deadline: A "Nuclear Reactor Pilot Program" involving 11 projects aims to produce fission by the nation's $250^{th}$ anniversary.
Operational Hurdles: Many projects require High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU), which is not currently available at scale in the U.S.
Unproven Technologies: The administration is pushing Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and "exotic" designs like Molten Salt-Fueled Reactors (MSRs) that have "great promise but poor operational history"
National Security and Geopolitical Competition
Energy Independence: Expanding nuclear power is seen as a vital geopolitical imperative to decouple Western allies from Russian energy.
Global Competition: Russia remains the world's major nuclear exporter, while China is conducting the largest nuclear buildout in history.
International Standards: The author warns that the dominant exporters usually write the global rules for safety and proliferation; currently, those leaders are Russia and China.
AI and Energy Infrastructure
Data Center Demand: The nuclear plan is heavily driven by the massive power needs of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
Timeline Mismatch: While AI data center power needs are urgent and growing, most SMR companies do not expect deployment until the mid-2030s.
Potential Catalyst: U.S. military microreactor projects (PELE and Janus) may provide the necessary spark to move deployment forward by the end of the decade.
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