The price action in natural gas futures is currently undergoing transformation as the market adjusts to the firming arrival of early-season heating demand and the first significant drawdown from storage. A pronounced turn toward colder-than-normal conditions across the Central and Eastern U.S. has led to an expansion of weather-triggered consumption, providing the primary bullish catalyst that helped lift the Henry Hub spot price by 33 cents to $3.93/MMBtu over the past week. However, this demand strength and the first storage withdrawal of -14 Bcf are being tempered by a powerful supply overhang; despite the drawdown, inventories remain a substantial 146 Bcf above the 5-year average, reflecting high storage levels across both the U.S. and Europe. With steady U.S. dry gas production holding near recent highs and strong LNG export activity sustaining a high pace of vessel loadings (34 cargoes), the market is engaging in a careful price discovery process, weighing seasonal tightening against robust supply fundamentals.
Storage Levels and Production, USA: 14 Bcf Net Withdrawal Eyed across Lower 48
According to the EIA, as of November 14, 2025, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,946 Bcf. That represented a net weekly withdrawal of 14 Bcf compared with 3,960 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories are 23 Bcf below last year at this time and stand 146 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating that stocks remain modestly above seasonal norms despite the early-season drawdown.
Picture 1 – Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the East (–9 Bcf) and Midwest (–5 Bcf) posted the largest withdrawals during the week. The Mountain (+2 Bcf) and Pacific (+1 Bcf) regions recorded small injections, while the South Central region declined by 2 Bcf. Together, these changes resulted in the 14 Bcf net withdrawal across the Lower 48.
U.S. Weather: Pronounced Turn Toward Colder-than-Normal Conditions
Over the past week, the United States experienced a pronounced turn toward colder-than-normal conditions as several Arctic fronts pushed southward across the central and eastern states. Much of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast recorded daytime temperatures predominantly in the 20s and 30s°F (–6 to 4°C), with widespread overnight freezes marking an early-season cold shot. These readings ran 3–6°C below average for mid-November, reinforcing a clear departure from seasonal norms. In contrast, the West observed comparatively mild and stable weather, with temperatures remaining near or slightly above typical levels for this time of year.
Farther south, the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast retained the warmest conditions nationally, with broad areas in the 60s and 70s°F (16–24°C), while Florida continued to hold near 75°F (24°C). This pattern underscored a sharp thermal contrast between advancing cold air across the northern tier and lingering warmth in the South. With colder air dominating major demand centers across the Midwest, Northeast, and interior East, space-heating requirements increased accordingly.
Picture 2 – United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
Between November 28 and December 4, 2025, the United States is forecast to experience a broad area of below-normal temperatures across the northern and central portions of the country. The strongest likelihood of colder-than-average conditions extends from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies, Upper Midwest, and into the Great Lakes, indicating a continued presence of early-season chill across the northern tier. Farther south and east, a wide corridor from the Mid-Atlantic through the Tennessee Valley trends near normal, reflecting a more moderate pattern with limited deviations from seasonal averages. The western states, particularly California and the Southwest, show an increased probability of warmer-than-normal conditions consistent with a milder and drier pattern.
In contrast, the southern tier from Texas across the Gulf Coast and into Florida leans warmer than normal, with the highest probabilities centered over the Florida Peninsula. Alaska remains predominantly warmer than average, especially across southern and central regions, while Hawaii also shows a tilt toward above-normal temperatures. Overall, the outlook suggests a relatively stable late-autumn pattern with no major extremes, balancing cooler-than-normal risks in the North against sustained warmth across the South. This setup points to steady early-winter heating demand in northern population centers, partly offset by reduced heating needs across the southern states.
Picture 3 – Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of November 13–19, 2025, total U.S. population-weighted degree days (CDD+HDD) reflected a clear shift toward early-season heating demand. The national weighted index trended slightly higher than the preceding week, supported by cooler conditions across the Midwest, Northeast, and interior West. This pattern underscores a firming transition from residual autumn cooling to more consistent heating influence as November progresses. Overall, the weekly signal points to a steady seasonal ramp-up in temperature-driven load across the northern half of the country.
Among key states, New York and California posted the strongest combined totals, with New York showing a pronounced increase mid-period and California exhibiting a similarly elevated profile tied to cooler inland conditions. Florida remained on the lower end of the range, consistent with limited heating requirements and easing cooling demand. Texas and Louisiana likewise registered modest totals, reflecting mild temperatures and a subdued contribution from both heating and cooling. The distribution highlights the growing dominance of heating-weighted states in shaping total degree-day demand.
Picture 4 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
Compared with climatological normals, weighted CDD+HDD values during this window generally tracked within the expected range, with actual readings fluctuating around the mid-normal band. A brief spike early in the week pushed actual values near the upper side of the envelope, but the profile subsequently eased back toward the center of the ±2σ spread. These movements characterize a typical mid-November pattern marked by alternating mild and cool intervals across major population centers. Overall, the comparison indicates no sustained anomalies relative to seasonal norms.
Weather-driven natural gas demand continued to firm as heating loads expanded across the northern states, though partially moderated by subdued requirements in the South and West. This balanced setup supports stable system consumption heading into the late-November heating season.
Picture 5 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Strong North–South Gradient Across Continent
Across Europe, average temperatures during November 14-21, 2025, showed a clear divide between the colder northern and eastern regions and the comparatively milder west and south. Scandinavia, the Baltic states, Belarus, and parts of northwestern Russia registered the lowest daytime averages, reflecting persistent cold air masses and early-season chill across the northern tier. Central Europe — including Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic — settled into a cooler but transitional regime with moderate averages positioned between the colder northeast and the warmer south.
Meanwhile, Western and Southern Europe remained noticeably milder. The Iberian Peninsula, southern France, Italy, and much of the Balkans recorded average temperatures in the mid to upper teens °C, consistent with residual Mediterranean warmth. This west–south mildness contrasted with the deeper coolness entrenched across northern and eastern areas.
That kind of distribution underscored a strong north–south gradient across the continent, with elevated heating demand concentrated in northern and eastern Europe and only moderate requirements across the southern and western regions.
Picture 6 – Europe Average Temperature (°C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Storage Withdrawal Began
As of November 14, 2025, working natural gas in underground storage totaled 3,946 Bcf, a 14 Bcf net withdrawal from the previous week’s level of 3,960 Bcf. Inventories were 23 Bcf lower than at this time last year and stand 146 Bcf above the five-year average, indicating a storage position that remains comfortably above seasonal norms heading deeper into November. This marks the first net withdrawal of the 2025–26 heating season.
Regionally, weekly changes were mixed. The East (–9 Bcf) and Midwest (–5 Bcf) posted the largest draws, while the Mountain (+2 Bcf) and Pacific (+1 Bcf) regions added small volumes. The South Central region declined modestly by 2 Bcf, contributing to the overall 14 Bcf withdrawal across the Lower 48.
For the week ending Tuesday, November 11, the natural gas rig count fell by 3 rigs, bringing the total to 125 rigs, with declines led by the Arkoma Woodford (–2) and the Permian (–1). Oil-directed rigs increased by 3, reaching 417, supported by additions in the Permian (+3) and smaller gains in other regions, despite several basins recording declines, including the Cana Woodford and Eagle Ford. The total U.S. rig count now stands at 549, which is 35 rigs lower than a year ago, reflecting continued year-over-year softness in drilling activity even as short-term movements remain mixed.
Between November 13 and November 19, U.S. LNG exports totaled 34 vessels with a combined capacity of 129 Bcf. Departures included eight from Sabine Pass; six each from Plaquemines and Corpus Christi; five from Freeport; four from Cameron; three from Calcasieu Pass; and two from Cove Point. The steady flow of cargoes indicates continued firm international demand as global markets prepare for peak winter consumption.
European Gas Storage Levels: Refill Season Showed Smooth, Uninterrupted Build through Early Fall
By mid‑November 2025, according to AGSI+ figures, underground gas storage across the EU stayed comfortably elevated, hovering in the mid‑80% range. Current inventories sit slightly below the record refill outcomes of 2023 and 2024 but remain well above the weaker benchmark years earlier in the decade, when storage frequently dipped closer to 65–75% before winter. The 2025 refill season shows a smooth, uninterrupted build from spring through early autumn, without the early plateauing occasionally observed in prior years. Relative to the historical envelope, 2025 appears firmly in the upper-middle range: not a record but still clearly stronger than most seasons since 2011. Entering the heating season, Europe retains a solid buffer that supports system resilience and reduces immediate exposure to early cold spells.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
Country-level patterns highlight a continued west–east divide in gas preparedness. Western and Southern Europe maintain the strongest storage positions, with France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium above 90% full, while Germany, Austria, and Poland sit comfortably in the 80–90% band across Central Europe. In contrast, Northern and Eastern Europe show more modest fullness levels: Sweden, Denmark, and Romania fall in the 40–60% range, and Ukraine remains the most significant outlier with inventories below 40%, far under the European average. This uneven distribution indicates that, despite a broadly healthy continental picture, several eastern and northern markets are more vulnerable to winter volatility and may rely more heavily on cross-border inflows to maintain supply balance.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Over the latest report week, U.S. natural gas prices firmed, with the Henry Hub spot price rising by 33 cents from $3.60 to $3.93/MMBtu. The increase was supported by the first storage withdrawal of the season (–14 Bcf), steady LNG export activity (34 cargoes; 129 Bcf), and cooler-than-normal temperatures across major demand centers. In Europe, Dutch TTF front-month traded near €31–32/MWh (≈$10.0–10.3/MMBtu), holding steady amid strong storage levels and early-season heating needs. Together, high inventories, moderating temperatures, and solid LNG flows produced a balanced market backdrop with moderate upward price pressure.
Looking ahead to next week, Henry Hub is expected to trade in the $4.30–$4.80/MMBtu range as colder conditions persist across key U.S. demand centers while storage levels continue to provide downside protection. TTF is likely to remain within €30–34/MWh (≈$9.9–11.3/MMBtu), shaped by high European inventories, advancing winter heating needs, and continued Atlantic LNG arrivals. Market focus will center on U.S. HDD trends, LNG feedgas flows, and the pace of EU withdrawals relative to seasonal norms. Overall, bearish forces from ample storage and still-moderate temperatures are expected to be balanced by bullish supports from heating demand and strong LNG trade, pointing to a steady near-term price environment.