In June 2025, temperature anomalies are expected to have a significant impact on the natural gas market in both the US and Europe. As extreme weather events — including even the eruption of the Etna volcano and its atmospheric consequences — become more frequent and unpredictable, the demand for natural gas for cooling purposes is expected to fluctuate. In the US, rising temperatures may lead to an increased use of natural gas for cooling purposes, driving up demand for natural gas. Conversely, in Europe, a sudden drop in temperatures could prompt a surge in natural gas consumption for air cooling needs. These temperature anomalies are likely to create challenges for LNG suppliers and buyers alike, as they navigate the changing market dynamics and strive to meet the evolving energy needs of consumers.
Currently, natural gas prices are falling, influenced by factors such as adverse weather conditions in the U.S. and Europe, which have led to an increase in gas storage. Another array of factors are coming from the U.S. economic policies and include the broad effect of Trump tariffs coupled with a significant increase in LNG exports.
Gas Storage Levels in the USA
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) as of May 23, 2025, the amount of working natural gas underground inventories in the so-called Lower 48 states reached 2,476 billion cubic feet (Bcf), representing a net increase of 101 Bcf (~4%) compared to the previous week. However, even with this weekly gain, current storage levels are still 316 billion cubic feet (Bcf) lower than they were at this time last year, although they are 93 Bcf above the five-year average. Examining regional data, the largest injections were observed in the East (30 Bcf) and the Midwest (29 Bcf). The U.S.’s South Central region, which has the highest storage capacity, contributed 25 Bcf — divided between Salt (7 Bcf) and Nonsalt facilities (19 Bcf).
When we examine the numbers from May 2024, it’s clear that total U.S. gas storage has decreased by 11.3%. This decline is mainly due to higher withdrawals over the past winter and a corresponding rise in demand this spring. Still, the current data falls within the five-year historical average, with inventories aligning closely to recent seasonal trends. As we head into summer, the rate of gas injections will be crucial for rebuilding sufficient reserves before next winter, particularly given the strong demand for LNG exports and the potential for higher power sector consumption.
Weather Influence
The early summer weather patterns in the United States are significantly impacting the demand for natural gas. After experiencing a warm spell in mid-May, temperatures began to cool down slightly toward the end of the month. During the week of May 22–28, the overall U.S. cooling degree days (CDD) were largely in line with seasonal averages; however, this national figure masks some regional extremes. In general, most of the country is warmer than at the same time last year, marking a strong start to the cooling season. NOAA's medium-range forecast had predicted a brief cool-down in the East to wrap up May, but as we step into June, it appears that above-average heat is set to spread across many parts of the U.S. – a crucial factor that will likely impact short-term gas consumption.
Interestingly, the Cooling Degree Days (CDD) for key U.S.’s East Coast cities — New York, Philadelphia, Washington, and Virginia — from May 23 to June 4, 2025, showed a significant increase in cooling demand, particularly on June 4, when CDD values jumped to 8 in both New York and Philadelphia. This rise is a clear sign of the warming temperatures in the area, which is leading to higher natural gas usage for power generation as more people turn on their air conditioning. As the need for cooling increases, we may see a rise in demand for gas-fired electricity, particularly in bustling urban areas. During this period, New York recorded a total of 13 CDD, Philadelphia had 14, Washington reached 16, and Virginia topped out at 18. These figures suggest a moderate start to the cooling season, slightly below the usual levels we expect for late May to early June in these areas. Historically, the average CDD for this time frame is around 21–26 in Washington, 20-27 in Virginia, 15–20 in New York, and 16–22 in Philadelphia, depending on the year and when the summer heat kicks in. So, the current numbers indicate that temperatures have been hovering around or just below the seasonal averages, with air conditioning needs remaining fairly limited so far.
Extreme weather events are grabbing attention lately. On May 28, the first tropical cyclone of 2025 made its debut in the eastern Pacific: Tropical Depression One-E, which is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Alvin, formed off the coast of Mexico. The forecast suggests that this system will remain offshore and weaken by the weekend, likely dissipating without impacting the U.S. While this Pacific storm poses little threat to gas infrastructure, its early arrival serves as a reminder that hurricane season is upon us. Now, all eyes are on the Atlantic basin, where hurricane season officially kicks off on June 1. According to NOAA’s latest outlook, there’s a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with predictions of 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those could develop into hurricanes. The unusually warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, along with other favorable conditions like weak wind shear and a supportive West African monsoon, are driving this active forecast. Any tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean in the coming weeks could potentially disrupt offshore gas production or LNG export operations. As summer approaches, hurricane risks become a significant wildcard for natural gas markets — just one storm threat in the Gulf can lead to precautionary shut-ins and price fluctuations.
Recently, across the U.S., average temperatures have edged down again, plummeting to levels that feel more like early March, resulting in some dreary weather. The northern and central parts of the country are experiencing a chill, with temperatures ranging from about 7°C to 16°C in areas such as the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and parts of the Northeast. Cities such as Great Falls, Minneapolis, and Boston are experiencing temperatures around 10–13°C, while some colder spots near the Rockies are dropping down to 7°C. On the flip side, a strong upper ridge is keeping things stable and dry in the north-central, western, and southwestern U.S. states, where they’re enjoying some surprisingly warm, even hot, weather — especially in the South and Southwest. Cities like Dallas, Brownsville, and Atlanta are experiencing temperatures around 21–24°C, while Miami is reaching about 29°C, indicating an early onset of heat and a growing need for cooling in the Southeast.
The NOAA's Temperature Outlook for Weeks 3–4 indicates a strong chance of warmer-than-usual temperatures across a large part of the central and western United States. The highest likelihood, around 70–80%, is concentrated in the Four Corners area and the central Rockies, which includes states such as Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, and extends into nearby states like Wyoming, Nebraska, and Kansas. We can also expect warmer conditions across the Great Plains, Midwest, and Northeast, although the probabilities there are a bit lower, ranging from 50–65%.
On the other hand, the Southeast and central South, including areas along the Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, face an equal chance of experiencing above-normal, near-normal, or below-normal temperatures, which means there is a bit more uncertainty in those regions. The Pacific Northwest is also in this "equal chances" group, while southern Alaska stands out as the only area predicted to have below-normal temperatures. This forecast suggests that a broad ridge of high pressure is likely to develop over the western and central U.S. by mid-June, potentially leading to increased cooling demands and higher natural gas usage for power generation in those regions.
Current Weather Events in Europe
In May 2025, Europe experienced significant temperature fluctuations across various regions. Western Europe experienced slightly warmer temperatures than usual, with increases of up to +2°C. Meanwhile, parts of Northern Europe, western Russia, and eastern Ukraine experienced even more significant heat, with temperatures soaring between +2°C and +6°C above the norm. On the other hand, southeastern Europe and southern Italy experienced slightly cooler weather, with temperatures dropping from 0°C to –2°C below average. As we look toward early June, meteorologists are predicting unusually warm weather for much of the continent. Germany and Austria are bracing for what’s being dubbed the “summer of the century,” with above 70% chance of experiencing one of the hottest summers on record. Central Europe is particularly likely to enjoy stable, hot conditions, with temperatures likely to surpass 30°C. All in all, forecasts suggest widespread positive temperature anomalies across most of Europe, indicating a likely surge in demand for air conditioning.
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
In particular, Spain is facing an unusually early heatwave this year, with temperatures in the south reaching a scorching 40°C by late May—about 5 to 10 degrees higher than what is typically seen at this time. If this extreme heat trend continues or returns during the summer, we could see a significant spike in gas demand for power generation, especially as air conditioning use increases in countries not accustomed to such high cooling demands. On the other hand, areas in central and northwestern Europe have been experiencing cooler, wetter weather, which has delayed the start of summer gas consumption in those regions. Overall, the forecast for Europe this summer suggests that warmer-than-usual conditions will likely settle in across much of the continent, leading to increased reliance on gas-fired electricity — particularly if droughts further reduce hydroelectric power generation.
European Gas Storage Levels
In Europe, the natural gas market is experiencing a slight contradiction: while storage levels appear decent, concerns persist about supply due to unusual weather and logistical issues. By the end of April, European gas storage, which had been depleted over the winter, was about 39% full. This is actually one-third less than the record-high levels we saw last year at the same time, meaning Europe is kicking off this injection season with a much smaller buffer compared to spring 2024. The EU has set a target to fill storage to 90% by November, but achieving this mark will require significantly ramping up gas imports compared to last year. In fact, Europe’s regulatory agency, ACER, estimates that to meet both summer demand and storage goals, LNG imports will need to be around 20% higher than in 2024, along with maximizing pipeline flows. Currently, gas storage facilities are approximately 46% full.
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
As we head into late May 2025, gas storage levels across Europe are showing considerable regional variation, with many countries falling short of their usual seasonal targets. A significant part of Central and Eastern Europe — including Germany, Poland, Austria, and the Baltic states — has storage levels dipping below 50%, which is well below the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, Western European countries like France and Italy are situated in a more moderate range (51–70%). Still, only a handful of nations, particularly Spain and Portugal, boast relatively high fill levels above 80%. This patchy progress in replenishing gas reserves is raising concerns as summer approaches, especially with predictions of increased gas demand in the power sector due to possible heatwaves and lower hydropower generation.
Conclusion
To wrap things up, the short-term outlook for natural gas is looking cautiously optimistic. We're seeing some shifts in seasonal trends: cooling demand is on the rise, which will really test how much supply we can inject, especially if a heatwave hits densely populated areas. With high LNG exports and a close watch on tropical developments, the market is expected to tighten in the near term. However, we might not see prices soar too high, thanks to robust production levels and a healthy storage buffer that can cushion any shocks from disappointing weather or temporary spikes in demand. We expect to see inevitable price fluctuations as daily forecasts are released. A prediction of a looming heatwave or storm can quickly drive prices up, while news of milder weather or no disruptions may keep prices stable.
On the Donald Trump tariff front, recent U.S. measures, such as the 10% duty on imported energy products like natural gas, haven't significantly shaken up the market. The U.S. remains a net exporter, and cross-border flows are only slightly affected. Ultimately, gas prices are still primarily influenced by fundamental factors such as weather, production, storage, and exports.