Recent geopolitical tensions—particularly President Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions against buyers of Russian oil—have repositioned geopolitical risk as a central variable in oil pricing.
While Brent remains in a consolidation band of $65–$72, early signals are forming:
The U.S. seeks to restrict Russian crude flows into Asian markets, notably India and China.
Key buyers like India are diplomatically but firmly rejecting external pressure.
The market is currently in a “wait-and-see” stance, yet forward curves for Q4 show a rising geopolitical premium.
In this environment, the probability of execution matters more than rhetoric—and the market is beginning to price that in.