Natural gas prices are currently being driven by weather volatility, storage dynamics, and sustained LNG flows. In the U.S., an early-January warm spell gave way to colder conditions, supporting demand and helping Henry Hub prices stabilize despite storage levels remaining slightly above seasonal averages and supply conditions staying broadly steady. Strong LNG exports continue to absorb a meaningful share of production, tightening the effective balance. In Europe, colder weather across Northern and Eastern regions, combined with lower-than-last-year storage, pushed TTF prices higher, though ongoing LNG arrivals have capped upside risks. Looking ahead, prices are expected to remain range-bound, with Henry Hub likely trading between $3.00–3.40/MMBtu and TTF between €30–36/MWh, as weather-driven demand is increasingly balanced by adequate inventories and seaborne supply.
Storage Levels and Production, USA: Inventories Higher Than Last Year, Same Period
According to the EIA, as of January 9, 2026, U.S. working natural gas in underground storage stood at 3,185 Bcf, . This reflected a net weekly withdrawal of 71 Bcf compared with 3,256 Bcf in the prior week. Inventories were 33 Bcf higher than last year at this time and stand 106 Bcf above the five-year average, highlighting a storage position that remains modestly above seasonal benchmarks. Overall, heading deeper into mid-winter, inventories continue to track slightly above historical norms despite ongoing withdrawals.
Picture 1 – Natural Gas in Underground Storage
Regionally, the Midwest (–26 Bcf) and East (–18 Bcf) registered the largest weekly declines. The South Central region recorded a withdrawal of 19 Bcf, reflecting a 14 Bcf draw in salt facilities alongside a 5 Bcf decline in nonsalt stocks. The Mountain (–4 Bcf) and Pacific (–4 Bcf) regions also posted smaller withdrawals over the week. Overall, these moves net to the 71 Bcf withdrawal across the Lower 48, and as shown in the accompanying chart, inventories remained above the five-year seasonal average.
U.S. Weather Conditions: Sharp Transition to Pronounced Arctic Spell
Over the past week, weather conditions across the United States were marked by a sharp transition from an early-period warm spell to a pronounced Arctic intrusion later in the period, driven by a shift in large-scale circulation. During January 7–10, a persistent high-pressure ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico supported above-normal temperatures across the southern Plains, Southeast, and parts of the central U.S., with anomalies generally ranging from +2 to +5°C above seasonal norms. These milder conditions extended into major population centers across the South and Lower Midwest, temporarily easing winter heating intensity early in the week. At the same time, temperatures across the northern tier remained closer to seasonal levels before the pattern shifted decisively colder.
From January 11–13, a surge of polar air pushed southward through Canada into the western and northern United States, bringing a rapid drop in temperatures across the Plains, Rockies, and Upper Midwest. Much of the northern and western U.S. transitioned to below-normal conditions, with anomalies of –2 to –4°C and widespread subfreezing temperatures, while the Northeast also cooled sharply toward the end of the period. In contrast, the southern and central regions retained comparatively milder conditions, maintaining modestly positive anomalies despite the broader cooling trend. Overall, the evolving pattern produced a strong regional contrast, with rising heating demand in northern and western markets partially offset by more moderate conditions across the South and Southeast.
Picture 2 - United States Current Temperatures (F)
Source: https://www.wunderground.com/maps/temperature/us-current
During the period of January 23–29, 2026, the United States is forecast to experience a pronounced regional split in temperature conditions. Below-normal temperatures are expected to dominate the northern and eastern portions of the country, including the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast, where persistent intrusions of Arctic air support anomalies of roughly 3–6°C below seasonal norms. These colder conditions are likely to reinforce wintry weather across key population centers in the Northeast and Great Lakes toward the latter part of the period. In contrast, much of the central U.S., including the Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, is projected to remain near seasonal averages, reflecting a transitional zone between colder air to the north and warmer regimes to the south and west.
Above-normal temperatures are forecast to prevail across the southern states and much of the western U.S., with the strongest warm anomalies centered over the Southwest, Intermountain West, and the Gulf Coast. The Southeast, including Florida and coastal Gulf regions, is also expected to remain warmer than normal, supported by continued inflow of mild, maritime air. Along the West Coast, temperatures are projected to stay solidly above average under stable high-pressure influence, while Alaska leans warmer than normal and Hawaii remains near to slightly above seasonal norms. Overall, the outlook points to elevated heating demand across northern and eastern regions, partially offset by milder conditions across the South and West, resulting in a mixed but seasonally supportive demand profile.
Picture 3 - Temperature outlook (F)
Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
During the week of January 15–21, 2026, population-weighted combined cooling and heating degree days (CDD+HDD) across major U.S. demand centers increased overall, signaling a strengthening winter demand profile. The national weighted index rose through the second half of the observed period, following a brief dip early in the week, as colder conditions expanded across large population hubs. This pattern reflects a shift away from earlier moderation toward a more heating-driven regime, consistent with mid-winter conditions taking hold across much of the country.
At the state level, New York posted the highest degree-day totals, climbing sharply late in the period and underscoring intensifying heating demand in the Northeast. Louisiana and Texas also registered elevated readings, reflecting a mix of building heating needs in the South alongside residual variability. California remained among the lowest contributors, supported by generally mild and stable conditions along the West Coast, while Florida recorded modest totals, highlighting limited temperature-driven demand in subtropical regions. Overall, the state-level distribution points to heating demand increasingly dominating national totals, led by northern and eastern markets.
Picture 4 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Top-Weighted States
Relative to climatological norms, actual population-weighted CDD+HDD tracked mostly below the normal baseline during the first half of the week before rising toward, and briefly above, the seasonal average later in the period. Values initially hovered in the lower portion of the expected range and approached the lower edge of the ±2σ envelope before rebounding as colder weather intensified. This evolution highlights a transition from milder-than-normal conditions toward a more seasonally typical winter demand profile, without sustained excursions beyond the normal range.
Picture 5 – Weighted CDD+HDD vs Normal CDD+HDD
From a market perspective, the observed pattern suggests a gradual strengthening of weather-driven natural gas demand, led by rising heating requirements across northern and eastern population centers. While early-week moderation temporarily softened demand pressure, the late-week rebound pointed to a firmer consumption backdrop heading deeper into winter, supporting steady withdrawals from storage.
Europe’s Weather Conditions: Persistently Low Average Temperatures
Across Europe, average temperature conditions during the period of January 4–10, 2026 reflected a pronounced cooling across northern and eastern regions. Scandinavia, including Norway, Sweden, and Finland, along with the Baltic states, Belarus, and large parts of Ukraine, experienced persistently low average temperatures, consistent with a strong Arctic influence extending deep into the continent. Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, and parts of the Balkans, also trended notably cooler than seasonal norms, reinforcing a broad cold regime across the northern and eastern tier.
In contrast, Western and Southern Europe remained comparatively milder. The Iberian Peninsula, France, Italy, and much of the Mediterranean basin recorded moderate average temperatures, supported by residual Atlantic influence in the west and maritime moderation across southern coastal regions. While these areas cooled relative to late-December conditions, average temperatures generally stayed closer to seasonal norms and well above those observed across northern and eastern Europe, maintaining a clear west–east and north–south thermal gradient.
Overall, the observed distribution underscored a strong continental contrast, with elevated heating demand concentrated across Northern and Eastern Europe, while milder conditions in Western and Southern regions keep heating requirements more moderate by comparison.
Picture 6 – Europe Average Temperature (°C)
Source:https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/Europe/temperature.shtml
U.S. Production and LNG Exports: Overall Stability Recorded
According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, January 6, the natural gas rig count decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 124 rigs. The Haynesville shale dropped one rig during the week. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 3 rigs to 409, with declines recorded in the Permian (–3 rigs), the Mississippian (–1 rig), and the Williston (–1 rig), partially offset by a gain of one rig in the Granite Wash and one addition among unidentified producing regions. The total U.S. rig count, including 11 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 544 rigs, which is 40 rigs fewer than at this time last year.
According to data from Bloomberg Finance, L.P., between January 8 and January 15, thirty-three LNG vessels with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 127 Bcf departed U.S. ports. Departures included eight cargoes from Sabine Pass; seven from Plaquemines; five each from Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Freeport; two from Calcasieu Pass; and one from Cove Point. The sustained pace of LNG liftings continues to reflect firm international demand for U.S. LNG during the core winter procurement period.
European Gas Storage Levels: Relatively Resilient Positions So Far
As of mid-January 2026, average European underground gas storage levels stand at roughly 57–58% full, based on the latest EU-wide trend data. This represents a marked decline from the same period last year, when inventories were close to 69%, and sits well below the exceptionally strong positions recorded in 2023 and 2024, when storage exceeded 80% at the turn of the year. Relative to the past five years, current levels fall into the lower half of the historical range and are closer to the weaker benchmark observed in 2022, reflecting heavier withdrawals during the early part of the heating season. The refill cycle through summer 2025 progressed steadily but peaked earlier and at a lower level than in the prior two years, leaving a reduced buffer entering mid-winter. Overall, Europe enters the core of the heating season with adequate but noticeably thinner storage coverage compared with recent winters, reducing flexibility in the event of prolonged cold spells.
Picture 7 - Storage Filling Levels (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels/EU
At the country level, storage levels reveal clear regional contrasts across Europe. Western and Southern Europe remained comparatively better supplied, with France, Belgium, and Italy generally in the 50–60% range, supported by diversified import routes and strong LNG access. Central Europe showed a relatively resilient position, with Germany and Austria around the mid-50s to low-60s percent range and Poland notably higher, close to 70–80%, strengthening the EU’s core gas corridor. In Northern Europe, Sweden stands out with storage near full capacity, while Denmark holds substantially lower inventories, increasing its exposure to winter demand swings. The most pronounced vulnerability remains in Eastern Europe, particularly Ukraine, where storage levels are well below 40% and far under the EU average. This uneven distribution highlights that while Europe as a whole retains sufficient aggregate supply, several regions remain more reliant on cross-border flows and timely imports to manage winter demand.
Picture 8 - Filling levels country map (EU)
Source: https://agsi.gie.eu/data-visualisation/filling-levels-country/map
Conclusion
Over the latest report week, U.S. natural gas prices stabilized and edged higher, supported by steady LNG export activity and a rebound in heating demand later in the period, despite storage levels remaining comfortably above seasonal averages. The Henry Hub spot price increased by about $0.04, rising from roughly $3.12/MMBtu at the start of the week to around $3.16/MMBtu, as colder conditions across northern and eastern population centers offset earlier weather-driven softness. In Europe, Dutch TTF front-month futures strengthened sharply, climbing into the €34–35/MWh range (approximately $10.0–10.3/MMBtu), reflecting colder temperatures across Northern and Eastern Europe and accelerating winter drawdowns from already lower-than-last-year storage levels. Overall, the transatlantic gas market was supported by firm LNG flows and weather-driven demand, even as inventories on both sides of the Atlantic continue to provide a meaningful buffer.
Looking ahead to the coming week, Henry Hub prices are expected to trade in a $3.00–3.40/MMBtu range, with near-term direction shaped by temperature developments across the eastern United States and any changes in LNG feedgas demand. Dutch TTF prices are likely to fluctuate within a €30–36/MWh band (roughly $8.8–10.5/MMBtu), as colder risks in Northern and Eastern Europe compete with the stabilizing influence of remaining storage and ongoing LNG arrivals. Short-term pricing dynamics will continue to hinge on the balance between weather-driven consumption and the availability of stored and seaborne supply. Net-net, bearish influences from still-adequate inventories and intermittent mild weather remain increasingly offset by supportive LNG exports and seasonal heating demand, pointing to a broadly balanced and range-bound price environment in the near term.