Terry L. Headley, MBA
February 2, 2026
Paid • A Publication of The Hedley Company – Communications & Research for Energy
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The U.S. critical minerals sector enters early February 2026 with aggressive policy action under the current administration, highlighted by “Project Vault,” a $12 billion strategic stockpile initiative for critical and rare earth minerals (funded by a $10B EXIM Bank loan plus ~$2B in private capital). Goals: counter China’s dominance and secure supplies for EVs, defense, tech, and manufacturing.
Additional developments: a January shift away from broad price floors (MP Materials’ existing support under review), a $1.6B 10% equity stake in USA Rare Earth (Texas mine / Oklahoma magnet plant), and ongoing Section 232 negotiations on processed mineral imports (potential price floors or restrictions). Markets show firmer tone on stockpiling momentum and narrowing oversupply risks:
Lithium carbonate: ~160,500 CNY/T (sharp MoM rise)
Cobalt: ~$56,290/T (stable; deficit outlook)
Nickel: $17,000–$18,000/T (volatile)
Critical minerals increasingly underpin power markets (battery storage/EV integration in CAISO/ERCOT) amid data-center and electrification demand. Supply chains face scrutiny but remain broadly stable; diversification accelerates via equity stakes, alliances, and domestic ramps. Binding constraint: China’s ~80–90% control of rare earth refining/processing; U.S. investments, stockpiles, and allied partnerships provide structural support for 2026–2030.
DOMESTIC NEWS — TOP 10
Administration launches $12B “Project Vault” strategic stockpile
Reuters / Bloomberg / The New York Times — February 2, 2026
Why it matters: $10B EXIM + $2B private funds create a strategic reserve to shore up EV/tech/defense supply chains and counter China’s leverage.U.S. takes 10% equity stake in USA Rare Earth (~$1.6B)
InvestorNews / CNBC — January 26, 2026
Why it matters: Direct investment in Texas mine and Oklahoma magnet facility signals an “America-First” equity approach to secure mine-to-magnet value chains.Administration steps back from broad price floors
Reuters — January 28–29, 2026
Why it matters: Emphasis pivots to deregulation, equity stakes, and stockpiles; MP Materials floor reportedly under Senate review; shares dipped, then rebounded.Energy Fuels acquires Australian Strategic Materials for $299M
InvestorNews — January 26, 2026
Why it matters: Builds a Western “mine-to-metal” pathway (Utah processing + Korea facility), narrowing the gap with China’s integrated dominance.Section 232 proclamation on processed critical minerals
White House — January 14, 2026
Why it matters: Directs Commerce/USTR to negotiate import agreements (potential floors/restrictions) with allies to reduce reliance on untrusted sources.Lynas Rare Earths reports 43% revenue surge
Reuters — January 20, 2026
Why it matters: Policy tailwinds and firmer prices support non-Chinese supply growth and long-lead project financing.DOE funding for by-product critical minerals recovery
U.S. Department of Energy — Apps closed Jan 2026
Why it matters: $275M to extract minerals from industrial by-products broadens domestic sources.Critical minerals framed as national-security priority
Nasdaq / Market News — January 28, 2026
Why it matters: Defense + electrification + energy security converge; policy urgency sustains sector focus.U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Framework advances
Z2Data — January 30, 2026
Why it matters: ~$1B joint projects and a pause in certain export controls (to Nov 2026) support allied diversification.Project Vault touted for jobs and economic security
Select Committee on the CCP — February 2, 2026
Why it matters: Signals bipartisan interest; telegraphs demand to miners and allied suppliers.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS — TOP 10
U.S. and allies push minerals alliance amid China risks
The Guardian / Reuters — February 1–2, 2026
Why it matters: Feb 4 ministerial to discuss minimum prices and de-risking from China; potential G7 alignment.China’s mineral dominance extends into Arctic/global chains
The Arctic Institute / S&P Global — January 2026
Why it matters: Export caps and strategic positioning complicate Western supply plans.Global lithium surplus narrows in 2026 outlook
S&P Global — January 9, 2026
Why it matters: Supply +10% YoY to ~1.63M mt LCE; energy storage demand outperforms.Cobalt deficit projected
Mining Review Africa — January 29, 2026
Why it matters: Tighter balances support prices; DRC export values could rise.UN / UNCTAD initiatives on transition-minerals governance
UN / UNCTAD — Ongoing
Why it matters: Demand may triple by 2030; aims for fair value chains and partnerships.Saudi Arabia/Gulf pursue critical-minerals hub strategy
CNN Business — January 22, 2026
Why it matters: $2.5T in resources positions the Gulf as a future supply-chain node.Venezuela eyed as prospective minerals target
CSIS — Recent
Why it matters: Large potential, significant geopolitical risk.Global mining trends normalize; lithium/copper exploration up
Dentons — January 9, 2026
Why it matters: Exploration spend rising with demand; new-normal cadence for supply response.UN minerals treaty pushback
Mongabay — Recent
Why it matters: Disputes over global governance and environmental safeguards continue.IEA: critical-minerals investment growth slowed
IEA — Recent
Why it matters: 2024 investment growth eased to ~5%; sustained policy support remains pivotal.
SUPPLY WATCH — WEEKLY CRITICAL MINERALS PRODUCTION
(U.S. Geological Survey / Industry Estimates — Latest)
U.S. status: Rare earths focus via new investments (USA Rare Earth ramps); lithium ~5,000+ mt; cobalt negligible (import-reliant); nickel ~18,000 mt; 100% import reliance persists for 12 minerals.
Global: China dominates refining/processing; allied projects (Australia/Lynas, etc.) add non-Chinese capacity.
USGS Program:
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/mineral-resources-program
IEA Critical Minerals:
https://www.iea.org/topics/critical-minerals
TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS WATCH
Supply chains are stable entering February. Project Vault/stockpiling is prompting procurement flows. Diversification via equity stakes and allied frameworks reduces concentration risk in China-centric segments; no major logistics disruptions noted under the current trade-agreement suspension (to Nov 2026).
LITHIUM MARKETS (Early February 2026)
Lithium carbonate (benchmark): ~160,500 CNY/T (~$22,500+/T equiv., Jan 30)
MoM: ↑ ~35%+ from January lows
YoY: ↑ ~107%
Drivers: Restocking, energy-storage strength, narrowing surplus in 2026 outlook.
COBALT MARKETS (Early February 2026)
Cobalt (benchmark): ~$56,290/T (Jan 29–30)
MoM: ↑ ~6–7%
YoY: ↑ ~161%
Drivers: Oversupply easing; deficit scenarios support pricing amid battery demand.
NICKEL MARKETS (February 2, 2026)
Nickel: ~$17,000–$18,000/T (volatile, down in recent sessions)
MoM: Mixed / ↓ ~1–2%
YoY: ↑ ~12–13%
Drivers: Short-term pressure vs. medium-term policy tailwinds and supply constraints.
WEEKLY SWOT — Outlook: February 3–9, 2026
Strengths
Policy acceleration: $12B Project Vault; USA Rare Earth equity; Section 232 process.
Price firming: Lithium rebound; cobalt/nickel supported by deficits/tighter balances.
Investment surge: >$20B cumulative + new deals expanding U.S./ally processing.
Weaknesses
Import reliance: 100% for 12 minerals; rare earth processing heavily external.
China dominance: Refining control persists; export policy uncertainty.
Volatility: Nickel’s whipsaws reinforce financing risk.
Opportunities
Stockpiling/diversification: Project Vault demand buffer; U.S.–Australia/G7 coordination.
Demand boom: Potential tripling by 2030; storage outperforms.
Tech advances: By-product recovery; integrated chains (e.g., Energy Fuels–ASM).
Threats
Geopolitics: Possible resumption of China export controls post-Nov 2026; resource nationalism.
Oversupply pockets: Some lithium segments still rebalancing.
Policy shifts: Retreat from price floors adds planning uncertainty.
Bottom Line: Stockpiling and equity investments materially strengthen U.S./ally resilience. Prices are firming alongside demand, but sustained diversification away from China remains the central strategic requirement.
DATA POINT OF THE WEEK
$12B “Project Vault” announced February 2, 2026: $10B EXIM loan + ~$2B private capital to build a U.S. critical-minerals stockpile and counter China’s market power.
LOOKING AHEAD
Monitor Project Vault implementation and procurement cadence.
Track Section 232 negotiations (key milestones due mid-2026).
Watch lithium/cobalt/nickel pricing volatility vs. storage demand.
Follow allied ministerials and diversification deal flow.