Doing “Something,” Even with a Low Probability of Success, Is Better Than Doing Nothing When Failure Is Guaranteed
Boom! Andy Mochan was jolted awake. The explosion triggered alarms, and fire engulfed the offshore oil platform in the North Sea. The inferno would ultimately claim the lives of 166 of his coworkers in one of the worst disasters in offshore drilling history. His next few moments became legend.
With the platform in flames, Andy faced a grim reality: staying meant certain death. His only option was to leap into the frigid Atlantic—a 15-story drop that could kill him on impact, with hypothermia waiting to finish the job if he survived the fall.
Andy’s story, popularized in Managing at the Speed of Change by Daryl Conner, has become a metaphor for organizations in crisis that see no good options. It defines a "burning platform" moment—where continuing business as usual is no longer viable. Andy jumped, survived, and was rescued.
The Imperative to Act: Wildfires and Publicly Owned Utilities
Doing something—even when success seems improbable—is grounded in two fundamental ideas: the potential for unexpected success and the dynamic nature of opportunity.
Publicly owned utilities (POUs) are facing their own burning platform: escalating wildfire risks. Wildfires are becoming more frequent and severe, and insurers are recognizing that traditional approaches are failing. The choice is stark: take proactive steps or wait for catastrophic loss.
The natural tendency in the transmission and distribution sector is to focus on incremental improvements. But this mindset can blind leaders to innovative solutions that may appear risky at first glance. Organizational inertia leads many to cling to legacy solutions until crisis forces a change.
Andy Mochan jumped because staying put was not an option. Likewise, communities and utilities must recognize when maintaining the status quo becomes prohibitively expensive. Wildfires don’t just destroy homes and landscapes—they erode economic stability, public health, water quality, tax bases, and community resilience. Municipal utility managers, cooperative leaders, city managers, and county supervisors must shift their perspective: wildfire mitigation isn’t just a cost—it’s an investment in long-term community survival.
Investing in Wildfire Resilience Yields Tangible Financial Benefits
With the advent of single-peril wildfire insurance products and the increasing use of financial risk assessments from independent firms like Charles River Associates, communities will soon be able to quantify how proactive wildfire mitigation translates into reduced costs. Two primary factors create urgency for change:
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The rising risk of catastrophic wildfires.
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Increased financing costs as investors adjust for wildfire risk.
Failing to act may seem financially prudent in the short term, but it is a penny-wise, pound-foolish approach. Investors compare communities when allocating capital, prioritizing those with strong risk mitigation strategies. Communities that fail to act may find themselves paying higher borrowing costs or struggling to secure investment altogether.
Athena Intelligence: A Data-Driven Approach to Wildfire Risk Assessment
Athena Intelligence offers a fresh, science-backed approach to wildfire risk assessment through its Voice of the Acre® probabilistic model. Unlike legacy risk models that rely on static simulations, Athena integrates geospatial intelligence, continuously capturing changing conditions such as fuel loads, terrain, and climate variations. This allows utilities and communities to anticipate and prepare for wildfire risks a year in
Designed to empower organizations to predict future outcomes using existing data rather than modeling assumptions, Athena’s Voice of the Acre® addresses the needs of utilities and communities with data-driven insights, facilitating informed decision-making in wildfire-prone areas.
There are multiple independent consultants who produce assessments of risk mitigation for utilities (i.e. Risk Spend Efficiency Reports, Risk to Financial Impact, Risk to Consequential Fires) for use with regulators and stakeholders based on Athena’s data.
Similarly, several engineering firms are already leveraging Athena’s insights for:
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Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) Planning
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Wildfire Mitigation Plans
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Confirmation of Hazardous Risk Areas
By shifting from assumption-based modeling to data-driven risk assessment, Athena empowers utilities and communities to make informed, proactive decisions about wildfire mitigation.
Proactive Leadership in a Dynamic Risk Landscape
Opportunity is not static. Just as in a game of chess, every move alters the board, shifting probabilities and opening new possibilities. Inaction, however, guarantees a predictable and often negative outcome.
Andy Mochan jumped because he had to. In ordinary circumstances, he would never have considered leaping into the Atlantic. But extraordinary circumstances demand extraordinary responses.
Your burning platform is already here. Wildfires are destroying communities, and POUs face increasing liability when their infrastructure sparks these fires. Waiting is not an option.
Beyond Fear: Building a Resilient Future
Too often, change initiatives rely on fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). Neuroscience shows that this approach can increase stress and polarization, making collaboration more difficult. Instead, utilities should frame wildfire mitigation as an opportunity for innovation, resilience, and long-term cost reduction.
Wildfires are the only major natural peril that utilities can actively mitigate. As providers of electricity, water, and natural gas—the lifeblood of modern economies—utilities have a duty to protect their communities. Investing in wildfire resilience isn’t just a regulatory requirement; it’s the logical choice for sustainable growth.
Speak with your bankers, city officials, and engineering teams about Athena’s wildfire insights. Or reach out to us directly at [email protected] to learn how our data-driven approach can help you make informed, proactive decisions.
The platform is burning. It’s time to jump—with a plan.