🔍 Insights from the OECD Economic Outlook – Colombia, December 2024
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Gradual Recovery Amid Structural Challenges
Colombia’s economy is slowly recovering post-pandemic, but growth remains moderate due to internal structural weaknesses and global uncertainty. GDP is projected to grow by 1.8% in 2024 and rise to 2.9% by 2026. -
Energy Sector Headwinds Impact Revenues
Falling gas prices are weighing heavily on export and fiscal revenues. While a new surtax on extractive industries may offer some fiscal relief, tight electricity markets—driven by adverse weather—continue to pose reliability and supply concerns. -
Monetary and Fiscal Caution Required
With inflation gradually declining, the central bank is easing interest rates cautiously. However, high fiscal deficits and revenue shortfalls limit room for expansive policy. Strict fiscal rule compliance and reform are essential to maintain stability. -
Investment in Transition and Infrastructure Needed
Although investment is rebounding, it remains below pre-pandemic levels. The OECD highlights the importance of accelerating reindustrialization and energy transition efforts to stimulate long-term growth and attract capital. -
Risks from Deficits and Governance Gaps
Fiscal and current account deficits remain elevated, making Colombia vulnerable to external shocks. Proposed reforms to reallocate tax revenues to local governments could increase fiscal imbalance unless local capacity improves. -
Energy Transition as a Growth Lever
Energy and industrial policy reforms, if implemented effectively, can become a key lever for boosting investment, supporting energy security, and positioning Colombia for a low-carbon future.
📌 Colombia’s path forward hinges on balancing fiscal responsibility with targeted investments in energy, infrastructure, and governance reform.