COAL CURRENTS:  Weekly Intelligence Brief for Metallurgical and Thermal Coal

Terry L. Headley, MBA
169 Raceview Drive, Ona, WV 25545
Ph, 681.279.0484 or via email at [email protected]

Produced weekly by the Hedley Company, Communications and Research for Energy and the Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy
Data for the Week Ending: January 24, 2026
Publication Date: January 26, 2026

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The U.S. coal sector closed the third full week of January 2026 with firm fundamentals. Winter weather—driven by Winter Storm Fern—elevated electricity demand across much of the country, coal production rebounded sharply from the holiday slowdown, logistics networks operated smoothly, and metallurgical coal markets remained strong on sustained steel output and export demand.

Coal again proved indispensable to grid reliability across PJM, MISO, and SPP (among others) during cold-weather stress events. As extreme cold gripped regions from Texas to New England, renewables output dipped and natural gas systems faced fuel supply constraints and freezing issues, prompting grid operators to ramp up coal-fired generation significantly.

U.S. coal-fired electricity generation surged 31% week-over-week in the period ending January 25, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with coal reaching peaks of 40% of generation in MISO, 24% in PJM, and notable contributions in ERCOT during high-demand hours. This dispatchable baseload and ramping capacity helped avert more severe shortages or blackouts, underscoring coal's ongoing role as a reliable "reliability fuel" when variable sources underperform or gas deliverability tightens—aligning with patterns seen in prior extreme events like January 2025 and February 2021.

This real-world performance reinforces broader reliability concerns. Recent assessments from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), including its 2025 Long-Term Reliability Assessment and 2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, highlight mounting risks from surging demand (e.g., data centers), thermal retirements (including coal), and a shift toward weather-dependent resources, which reduce fuel diversity and increase winter shortfall probabilities in regions like MISO, PJM, and others. Coal's on-site fuel security provides resilience that alternatives often lack during prolonged cold snaps.

Internationally, India’s designation of coking coal as a critical and strategic mineral in late January 2026 reinforced the reality that metallurgical coal remains essential to global industrial growth, facilitating faster domestic exploration, mining approvals, and reduced import dependence for steel production.

DOMESTIC NEWS — TOP 10 (Week ending Feb 1, 2026)

1. Coal-fired generation surged during Winter Storm Fern
   EIA / Today in Energy — Jan 28–29, 2026
   Why it matters: Coal’s share and output rose materially during the cold snap as wind/solar/hydro weakened—another real-world stress test reinforcing fuel security + on-site inventory.

2. U.S. LNG import cargoes arrived during the storm as prices hit records
   Reuters — Jan 28, 2026
   Why it matters: The U.S. importing LNG during a domestic price blowout is the kind of “advanced energy strategy” you get when reliability planning is replaced by slogans.

3. Federal lawsuits continue targeting EPA coal-plant wastewater compliance extensions
   Utility Dive — Jan 23, 2026
   Why it matters: Compliance timelines directly affect coal fleet capex decisions, retirements, and “run/repair/retire” economics—especially for older units.

4. Coal-plant wastewater rollback legal actions filed/advanced
   Southern Environmental Law Center (filing/press) — Jan 20, 2026
   Why it matters: Whether these challenges consolidate and where they land jurisdictionally will shape near-term compliance certainty.

5. OSMRE confirms effective date for rescission of portions of performance standards (subsidence/siltation-related)
   Federal Register — Jan 27, 2026
   Why it matters: Federal program standards and state primacy programs are where real permitting friction lives—this kind of change matters in underground coal regions.

6. State utility regulators push back on DOE “emergency” orders cost allocation
   Utility Dive — Jan 26, 2026
   Why it matters: If emergency reliability orders become a recurring tool, who pays (and how) becomes the knife fight.

7. Colorado challenge to federal order keeping a coal plant open
   Colorado Newsline — Jan 29, 2026
   Why it matters: Reliability policy is colliding with state politics in real time—expect more litigation around forced-run/extended operation actions.

8. NERC long-term reliability assessment released (winter shortfall risk themes continue)
   NERC (LTRA) — Jan 2026
   Why it matters: Resource adequacy warnings keep stacking up; coal’s strategic argument strengthens any time planners admit the system is getting thinner.

9. West Virginia: Senate Energy advances coal-market/coal-facility related bills
   WV Legislature Blog — Jan 29, 2026
   Why it matters: WV is signaling active policy intent to protect/expand coal market access and downstream industrial development.

10. Alliance Resource Partners / Mettiki issues WARN notices (employment signal)
    Investing News Network — Jan 29, 2026
    Why it matters: Even in a stronger demand narrative, mine-level economics and contract realities still drive staffing and closure decisions.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS — TOP 10 (Week ending Feb 1, 2026)

1. India designates coking coal as a “critical and strategic mineral”
   Reuters — Jan 29, 2026
   Why it matters: India is effectively saying: we’re not romantic about this—steel needs coke. This supports long-run met coal demand even as import substitution is pursued.

2. Australia premium coking coal prices hit multi-month highs (weather disruptions)
   Argus — Jan 21, 2026
   Why it matters: Supply-side disruption (Queensland rains/flooding) tightens the market fast; met coal remains a logistics + weather commodity.

3. Coking coal prices continued rising into late January
   Trading Economics — Jan 30, 2026
   Why it matters: Confirms continued firmness as buyers restock and supply remains constrained.

4. Thermal coal benchmark pricing strengthened late January
   Trading Economics — Jan 30, 2026
   Why it matters: A reminder that thermal pricing still has reflexive upside when gas spikes and winter freight tightens.

5. Global coal exports soften (week-over-week declines noted in shipping/market trackers)
   Petromindo — Jan 26, 2026
   Why it matters: Export flows affect benchmark volatility—and can whipsaw domestic US positioning depending on arbitrage windows.

6. India’s steel expansion keeps coking coal import demand structurally high (forecast)
   Argus — Jan 22, 2026
   Why it matters: Even with “self-reliance” goals, near-term imports remain a reality—good for seaborne met suppliers.

7. China coal demand narrative remains pivotal for 2026 trade balance
   (China demand outlook commentary/analysis)
   Why it matters: “Getting China wrong” still breaks coal forecasts.

8. China/Japan/India still dominate thermal coal trade—even with slower growth
   Reuters (trade context) — Jan 21, 2026
   Why it matters: Coal exporters will fight over the few remaining growth markets; price competition increases.

9. China coking coal/coke market firmness into end of January
   Hellenic Shipping / SMM brief — Jan 30, 2026
   Why it matters: Indicates steady pre-holiday stocking behavior and supply constraints.

10. Indonesia quota-policy volatility remains a major seaborne price risk
    (Policy debate continues; export/output controls remain active discussion)
    Why it matters: Indonesia is still the swing supplier; policy shocks translate quickly into Asian benchmark movement.

LEGISLATIVE, JUDICIAL & REGULATORY UPDATE — U.S. (Week ending Feb 1, 2026)

Federal — Regulation & Litigation

• OSMRE rule effective date confirmed (Jan 27) impacting portions of performance standards related to underground mine subsidence/siltation constructs.

• Coal-plant wastewater litigation remains active challenging EPA timeline changes/rollbacks.

• Coal combustion residuals (coal ash) rulemaking remains open for comment (timeline and hearing references maintained by EPA).

• DOE emergency authority / forced-run reliability actions continue drawing scrutiny and cost-allocation fights at FERC.

• Court ruling involving DOE climate advisory process (procedural governance issue) adds legal uncertainty around broader climate-rule actions.

States — Selected Developments

• West Virginia: Senate Energy advanced coal market–focused bills (programs and coal/industrial policy concepts).

• Colorado: State-level political/legal challenge to a federal order keeping a coal plant open.

• Iowa: A bill introduced addressing toxic pollutant discharges associated with coal ash.

ELECTRICITY SYSTEM STATUS — ALL RTOs / ISOs

System signal (this week): Winter operations again highlighted fuel security and ramp capability; coal output rose sharply during Fern conditions while renewables weakened.

(If you want the full “Fuel Mix by RTO – max/min/avg” block in the Coal Currents house format for the week ending Feb 1, I’ll need the matching Grid Monitor export or an updated workbook for that week.)

COAL DATA SUMMARY

Workbook: January 24 coal data.xlsx
Coverage: Week ending Jan 24, 2026 (Week 4)

Supply Watch — Coal Production (Week ending Jan 24, 2026)

• West Virginia Total: 1.638 MMst (1,638 thousand tons)

• U.S. Total: 10.451 MMst (10,451 thousand tons)

• Appalachia: 3.178 MMst

• Interior: 1.652 MMst

• Western: 5.621 MMst

• Rail Carloads: 58,954 (week ending Jan 24)

Year-to-Date (2026 vs 2025) — Through Week ending Jan 24

• West Virginia Total: 5.857 MMst vs 5.526 MMst (+6.0%)

• U.S. Total: 36.961 MMst vs 34.164 MMst (+8.2%)

SUPPLY WATCH — WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION

U.S. Weekly Coal Production (Week Ending Jan. 24, 2026)
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

• Total U.S. Production: 10.45 million short tons

• Appalachia: 3.18 MMst

• Interior: 1.65 MMst

• Western: 5.62 MMst

• Year-to-Date vs. 2025: +8.2%

Production normalized following the post-holiday rebound but remained above year-ago levels due to strong winter dispatch.

SUPPLY WATCH — STATE-BY-STATE COAL PRODUCTION

Thermal vs. Metallurgical Coal

EMPLOYMENT & WAGES — DIRECT, INDIRECT, AND TOTAL IMPACT

Employment Baseline

• Direct coal mining jobs: 40,700

• Employment multiplier: 3.5

For every 1 direct coal job, 2.5 additional jobs are supported in rail, barge, power generation, equipment supply, contract mining, engineering, and local services.

Total Employment Impact

Major Indirect Job Categories (Included Above)

• Rail transportation: ~51,000 jobs (coal ≈38% of rail tonnage)

• Barge & port workers: ~8,000–10,000 jobs

• Coal-fired power plants: ~26,000–30,000 workers

• Contract & mine services: equipment, blasting, reclamation, engineering, safety

STATE-BY-STATE WAGES PAID (ANNUAL ESTIMATES)

Wage Assumptions

• Direct coal miners: $96,000

• Indirect / contract / service workers: $65,000

Top Coal States — Wage Impact

U.S. Total Wages

• Direct wages: $3.91 billion

• Indirect & induced wages: $6.61 billion

• Total coal-related wages: $10.52 billion

TAX & SEVERANCE REVENUE IMPACT (ESTIMATED)

Methodology (Conservative)

• State & local income/payroll taxes: ~5% of wages

• Federal payroll & income taxes: ~15% of wages

• Coal severance & production taxes: state-specific averages applied to production

Tax Revenue from Coal Wages

Coal Severance & Production Taxes (Selected States)

COMBINED PUBLIC REVENUE IMPACT

TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICS WATCH

• Rail coal cars loaded: 58,954

• Estimated rail tonnage: ~6.48 MMst

• Barge traffic: Stable; no lock or weather disruptions

• Exports: Strong met coal flows to Europe & India; steady Asia-bound thermal volumes

ELECTRIC SYSTEM STATUS — ALL RTOs / ISOs

• Fuel mix (approx.):

  • Natural gas: 40–45%

  • Coal: 22–28%

  • Nuclear: 19–20%

  • Wind/solar: variable, lower during cold snaps

Note:  Coal provided critical baseload and ramping support during peak winter demand. the U.S. electric grid likely would not have been able to reliably meet demand without widespread risks of shortages or blackouts in recent years and going forward, particularly during periods of extreme weather, peak load, or surging demand growth. Coal-fired power has provided critical dispatchable baseload generation—reliable, fuel-secure capacity that can run continuously and respond to fluctuations—helping to backstop the system amid retirements and rising electricity needs from data centers, electrification, and other factors.

STEEL & METALLURGICAL COAL WATCH

• U.S. raw steel production: ~1.75 million net tons/week

• Capacity utilization: ~77–78%

• Premium hard coking coal: $240–245/metric ton

• Trend: Firm pricing supported by steel demand and export flows

LEGISLATIVE, JUDICIAL & REGULATORY UPDATE

• Ongoing litigation over EPA wastewater and coal-ash rules

• Continued debate over DOE emergency reliability authority

• State-level action (notably WV) to preserve coal market access

• OSMRE rule changes affecting underground mine performance standards

DATA POINT OF THE WEEK

Coal supports ~142,000 U.S. jobs, $10.5 billion in wages, and ~$4 billion in annual public revenue—concentrated in regions with few economic substitutes.

WEEKLY SWOT

Strengths: winter reliability demand, strong met pricing
Weaknesses: regulatory uncertainty
Opportunities: exports, steel growth, cold-weather dispatch
Threats: litigation, gas & renewables competition

Bottom Line:
Coal remains an economic system, not a single fuel—one that underwrites jobs, wages, tax bases, and grid reliability simultaneously.

LOOKING AHEAD:  WHAT TO EXPECT NEXT WEEK (February 3–9, 2026)

The U.S. coal sector enters the first full week of February with continued firm fundamentals amid persistent winter weather pressures. Forecasts indicate lingering frigid conditions and potential additional storm activity across much of the eastern and central U.S., driven by an entrenched polar vortex pattern that could bring another surge of extreme cold and possible snow/ice events, particularly from the Midwest through the Northeast and into parts of the Southeast.

Electricity demand is expected to remain elevated or rise further in key regions like PJM, MISO, and SPP, where operators may again rely heavily on coal for baseload and ramping support. Following the strong performance during Winter Storm Fern—where coal generation surged 31% week-over-week—continued cold snaps could sustain or increase coal's share of the mix, especially if renewables underperform in low-sun/low-wind conditions or natural gas faces ongoing deliverability constraints from freezing infrastructure. Grid reliability assessments suggest tight margins persist, with coal's dispatchable, fuel-secure attributes likely to play a critical role in avoiding shortages during any prolonged or intensified cold events.

Production should stay robust as mines operate at full capacity post-holidays, with logistics networks remaining smooth barring any major new disruptions from weather. Metallurgical coal markets are poised to hold steady to firm, supported by sustained global steel output and India's ongoing emphasis on coking coal as a strategic mineral, which continues to drive export demand and domestic priorities amid robust infrastructure and manufacturing growth.

Overall, expect coal to remain a cornerstone of grid stability through the week, with fundamentals bolstered by weather-driven power needs and strong met coal dynamics internationally. Monitor closely for any evolving storm tracks that could amplify demand spikes.

About the Author
Terry L. Headley, MBA, is a West Virginia-based communications strategist, writer, policy analyst, and energy sector specialist with more than 25–30 years of experience in journalism, public relations, strategic communications, and energy policy advocacy. A former journalist and communications director for major coal industry organizations (including the West Virginia Coal Association and the American Coal Council), he has advised policymakers, trade associations, utilities, and advocacy groups on grid reliability, fuel security, electric power markets, energy economics, and the real-world impacts of policy decisions on households, businesses, and regional economies. Often recognized as a defender of reliable, domestic baseload energy (frequently described as a “coal guy”), Headley emphasizes evidence-based analysis, clear messaging, and institutional knowledge to address challenges in an era of market distortions and policy shifts. He holds an MBA in management and economics, along with a master's degree in public relations, and is the founder of The Hedley Company, as well as a founder, senior fellow, and Vice President of Communications and Research for the Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy. His work appears in outlets like RealClearEnergy, Energy Central, and his Substack newsletter, America's Coal Today.

About The Hedley Company
The Hedley Company is a strategic communications, research, and advisory firm specializing in energy, infrastructure, natural resources, and public policy. Founded by Terry L. Headley, it provides clients—ranging from energy producers and trade associations to policymakers and advocacy groups—with disciplined, credible messaging, market analysis, policy research, and strategic guidance. The firm blends newsroom rigor with deep industry expertise, focusing on electric grid reliability, fuel supply dynamics, economic impacts, and defending traditional energy sources like coal in the face of regulatory and market challenges. It helps organizations convey complex truths about power clearly and effectively, often using data-driven insights from regional transmission organizations (RTOs), county-level economics, and real-time market trends.

About the Seneca Center
The Seneca Center for Energy and Critical Minerals Policy (also referred to in some contexts as the Seneca Center for Budget and Policy or similar variations) is a West Virginia-based, independent, nonpartisan research and policy organization dedicated to advancing reliable, affordable, and secure domestic energy supplies, grid security, critical minerals development, and sound fiscal/energy policies that support American prosperity, national security, and industrial strength. Founded in late 2025 with Terry L. Headley as a founding board member, senior fellow, and Vice President of Communications and Research, it focuses on evidence-based recommendations—such as all-of-the-above energy portfolios, transmission upgrades, workforce training, and prioritizing baseload resources like coal—to address reliability risks, economic realities, and strategic mineral needs. Not a protest group or trade association, the Seneca Center submits public comments, conducts policy analysis, and equips leaders (particularly in energy-dependent states like West Virginia) with practical, reality-tested solutions for energy planning and industrial growth.