This group brings together the best thinkers on energy and climate. Join us for smart, insightful posts and conversations about where the energy industry is and where it is going.


Recession or Recovery?

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg - is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil * Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info,...

  • Member since 2003
  • 2,328 items added with 1,350,112 views
  • Mar 21, 2023

Recession or Recovery?

This question has been asked by most strategists who have the task of defining the scenario that must be considered for the decisions of their companies and institutions.

And in the area of energy, this issue is equally important!

Recession means lower demand, recovery a higher one. And, concomitantly, the demand for energy changes and, of course, the market prices too!

Obviously, you cannot bet on both scenarios at the same time!

So, the alternative is to evaluate the two scenarios and their variants, to find out which each organization feels more comfortable with their decision making process.

Anyone who does this exercise will stand a better chance of achieving and maintaining  a good performance in the energy arena.

Whether in contracting energy, in energy efficiency solutions, in managing the main parameters that influence the energy bill, and even in local generation/cogeneration and higher voltage accesses.

A finding is sure. Better to ask questions about these topics than "just let it go".

Julian Silk's picture
Julian Silk on Mar 21, 2023

See, for possible quantitative figures for electricity, 


Rafael Herzberg's picture
Rafael Herzberg on Mar 22, 2023

Hi Julian,

Sure, having quantitative figures helps! In the above mentioned study, it is about what has happened in the recent years. It is a look using the rear view mirror.

The super challenging questions are about the near, medium and long term futures. The fragility of the regulatory framework (electricity), the lack of demand response programs, the super high power theft (above 10% of all electric power delivered), the never ending subsidies especially linked to cronies, the privatisation process that stopped (generating companies are mostly government owned) and the list goes on and on.

It is no surprise that Brazil is the last one when compared to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) in terms of USD/MWh.


Julian Silk's picture
Julian Silk on Mar 22, 2023

This does make Brazil sound like South Africa, and it is a relevant question why there is not more support for honest service and pricing, with support for a regulatory framework to back it up. 

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Rafael Herzberg on Mar 23, 2023

Julian the very well known answer: a lot of corruption is associated with all Government related decisions. And this applies as well to the Legislative and even Judiciary. That's why even if Brazil is so rich (natural resources) we are still a poor country.

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Thank Rafael for the Post!
Energy Central contributors share their experience and insights for the benefit of other Members (like you). Please show them your appreciation by leaving a comment, 'liking' this post, or following this Member.
More posts from this member

Get Published - Build a Following

The Energy Central Power Industry Network® is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.

If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.

                 Learn more about posting on Energy Central »