Evaluating Fifteen Years of IEA Energy Forecasts
- Jul 7, 2018 9:08 pm GMT
- This article analyses historical IEA forecasts of global energy consumption.
- Three major forecasting challenges are observed and briefly analysed:
- 600 Mtoe overprediction of oil consumption
- 1000 Mtoe underprediction of coal consumption
- 400 Mtoe underprediction of other renewables
The International Energy Agency tackles a monumental task every year when compiling its World Energy Outlook report: forecasting global energy consumption over the next 2-3 decades.
Over the years, the IEA has taken quite a lot of flak from critics with 20/20 hindsight about fairly large deviations between forecasted and actual numbers. For example, the IEA failed to forecast the plateau in conventional oil production which started about one decade ago and generally underpredicted the expansion rate of modern renewables.
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