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EV Application Shakeout – Part 2

image credit: Tesla.com
John Benson's picture
Senior Consultant, Microgrid Labs

PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE: Microgrid Labs, Inc. Advisor: 2014 to Present Developed product plans, conceptual and preliminary designs for projects, performed industry surveys and developed...

  • Member since 2013
  • 885 items added with 597,796 views
  • Jan 5, 2021
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In Part 2 we will focus on (1) Road-going vehicles; (2) Flying electric vehicles and how recent developments by Tesla may bootstrap this stalled market, (3) other recent developments by Tesla and (4) a potential Tesla competitor.

Discussions
Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jan 5, 2021

Appreciate you including the development of the gigafactories and such-- lots of cool cutting edge EV tech out there to get excited about, but we can't get caught up in the hype curve and have to focus on where the business case is seeing the greatest success. 

John Benson's picture
John Benson on Jan 5, 2021

Indeed. 

As I frequently tell people, economics get the final vote on everything.

-John

John Benson's picture
John Benson on Jan 8, 2021

Given that I post one paper a week, frequently some new information comes out shortly after I post a paper such that, had it come out before I posted said paper, I would surely have included it. This just happened, and the information is important, so I'm adding this comment to this paper. 

Among the best selling vehicles in the U.S. are pickups, but I've noted that they have been getting increasingly expensive. Apparently Tesla has invented a way to produce an amazing pickup at a really low price. See the link below for the details.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-secret-production-analysis-video

-John

 

Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jan 8, 2021

I'm so interested to see the market performance of electric pickup trucks, given the broad, overly-generalized profile of the pickup truck driver is not typically crossing over with the broad, overly-generalized profile of an EV buyer. I've seen early attempts to appeal to the pickup driver priorities in future electric pickups, focusing on the power and speed these electric trucks can bring. So, I'm curious to see if those efforts are successful or if the pickup truck marketshare is going to be a steeper hill to climb than EV sedans were. 

Jim Stack's picture
Jim Stack on Jan 25, 2021

By the way on the report I didn't see any mention of the Hyper Loop by Tesla. That is safer and much more efficient than a plying EV. High speed rail is ok by the leaps in efficiency with Hyper loop are really amazing. 

Also the reference to Nicola and the Hydrogen dream don't seem to fit here. It's much less green than pure electric . The fueling stations are over 10x more expensive. Many see H2 as FOOL CELLS.  

John Benson's picture
John Benson on Jan 26, 2021

I haven't been following the Hyper Loop - when it gets closer to a real transit system, I will start following it. 

I sort of agree re. hydrogen, ammonia and fuel cells, but they are making good progress in bringing the price down on all of the above.

Nicola has a tough road for other reasons, mainly the Tesla Semi. The Semi will start limited production in Gigafactory 1 (Reno) late this year, and then move this to the Texas Terafactory for mass production, probably in 2022.

-John

John Benson's picture
Thank John for the Post!
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