The shift from traditional gas- and diesel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles is here – and it’s a huge shift in many ways. In fact, the last time we felt a vehicle transition shift of this magnitude, was the change from horse and buggy to the horseless carriage.
And, just like today, there were naysayers. One of the prevalent trains of thought was that by taking the horse – and the horse sense that came with it – cars wouldn’t be safe. Drivers would have to pay attention to the road! An interesting counterpoint to today’s concern about autonomy being unsafe because the driver isn’t paying attention.
As cars took off, one notable follower of the business was not optimistic about there being too many cars. Why? Clearly, there are not enough trained chauffeurs to drive them. “There will never be more than 30,000 cars; there aren’t enough chauffeurs to drive them.”
But this is just human nature: we understand new things by comparing to the things we already know.
Can You “Logic” People Through a Paradigm Shift?
Once a new paradigm becomes dominant, the change is obvious. But in the early stages of technological change, even industry giants have difficulty seeing it. For instance, Harry Warner, cofounder of Warner Brothers Pictures, asked, “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” in 1927—the same year The Jazz Singer brought sound to the movies. Other noteworthy quotes include “I think there is a world market for about five computers,” which is credited to Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, in 1943. And in 1977, Ken Olsen, cofounder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said, “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.”
Today we’re doing it again. We hear similar prognostications about what it will take to drive mainstream adoption of EVs: they won’t take off until we can fill them just like we fill our cars today. Fast, faster, fastest.
The key to managing a paradigm shift is time. People are comfortable with the status quo and get nervous about change. But when you start to think about it, you realize that trying to replicate the gas station model won’t really work.
- You can’t really charge an EV in the same amount of time as you can charge a gas vehicle, which is 3-4 minutes. Even the fastest EV charger takes a lot longer to fully charge your vehicle.
- If everyone was to charge their EV at a fast charger, the grid would struggle mightily to keep up. The average US household uses 29.5 kWh per day. You can easily use that (or more) in a 30- minute session at a DC Fast Charger. If that charger were used just 20 hours out of any 24, that would be 1,200 kWh – enough to power 40 homes.
- Replicating the gas station model with fast chargers is an enormous undertaking – both in cost and infrastructure. Imagine all our cities being dug up, rewired, and then put back again to get expensive chargers on every corner like we have gas stations today.
But life is different with an electric vehicle.
Electricity is the Difference
The key difference between charging with electricity versus gas is that electricity, unlike gas, is safely delivered to most homes and workplaces. And what do cars do at home and at the workplace? They’re parked. So, if you have a clean, safe supply of electricity at home and at work, that’s where most of the charging should happen. But that’s logic. And logic takes time to pervade.
We can tell people that if everyone charged as fast as the gas pump, the grid would break, the economic benefits would fail, and you’d just have another chore on your list. But will they believe us? Once again, it takes time.
More importantly, what does it take to make people accept EVs as GREAT cars, not replacements for what they know?
It takes both experience and education. Our research found that battery range anxiety is common among people who don’t own an EV – 41% of EV Considerers are worried that they won’t be able to go as far as they need to go on a single charge. Conversely, those who have made the leap to EV ownership are 50% less likely to share that concern. EV Owners are also 50% less likely to worry about the time it takes to charge. Why? EV Owners report driving an average of 97 miles/day, which is well within the battery range of today’s EVs, and most (74%) charge at home.
Yet, charge anxiety is real.
The paradigm shift we need the market, customers, partners, and everyone to understand is that charging while your car is parked – at night or at work – is a benefit. It is not a problem. Drivers will probably never need to go to a gas station again, except in certain situations.
Charging Model of the Future
Solving for charge anxiety requires a change in our charging/fueling model. This is the paradigm shift: Most charging will happen where the vehicle is already parked. With wireless charging pervasive, this means that anyone can top off wherever they park – at a store, restaurant, or movie. We call this Powersnacking™ - anywhere you park, you charge.
With the exception of long-distance travel, where you need to keep going to move goods or get to Grandma’s house, we don’t need to keep focusing on fueling EVs faster. That’s why we urge people not to get stuck in the speed trap.