Energy Central Special Issue: Quick Hit Responses from Utility Executives on 2023 Predictions

Ben Ettlinger, Analyst of Emerging Technologies at NYPA

I think infrastructure protection technology is the big wave maker simply because of what is happening around the country at sub stations. In my opinion, if its not on the top of peoples lists, it really should be.

Joe Hoagland, Vice President of Innovation & Research, TVA

What is the one technology you expect to make waves in 2023, whether a new technology was introduced, an existing one finally reaching scale, or simply a story that's under the radar and will blow up in 2023?

Continued research, development and implementation of long-term energy storage systems that make sense from a reliability and economic viewpoint will be one of the big stories for 2023.

TVA is building the energy system of the future to enable ongoing and future growth in the seven-state region we serve. We are focusing on a diverse generation portfolio that includes nuclear, gas, renewables and energy storage that will enable TVA to better meet changing market conditions, such as load growth, and allow us to further decarbonization efforts and ensure energy security for our customers.

As we incorporate more renewables and clean-energy resources into the grid, the need for increased longer-term energy storage will grow for the times when sunlight and wind are unavailable. We and other energy companies around the U.S. are studying renewable-energy storage technologies, including pumped storage, to meet 24/7/365 power demand and high reliability at the lowest feasible cost.

Are there any new trends you expect to see from the utilities when it comes to strategy, customer relations, new programs, or business strategy that will dominate attention in 2023?

Achieving net-zero carbon emissions will require clean energy generation from a variety of carbon-free generation sources, some of which are not yet available on a commercial scale. So, one of the most beneficial trends is the increased number of partnerships as the electric utility industry innovates to drive progress.

The energy system of the future that TVA is building will support a diverse portfolio of clean energy sources that supports our, and the broader national, decarbonization effort through technology advancements. We are working with other government agencies, investor-owned utilities, start-up companies and academic institutions as part of our investment in the future. As we look ahead, we are partnering to help us answer such questions as “how will we get to net-zero decarbonization?” The answer will come through innovation, forward thinking and working side-by-side with partners to collaborate on solutions. Together, we can better understand customer interests and needs, address environmental and social justice concerns, contribute to economic development and achieve sustainability targets.

What are you looking for from the world of policy when it comes to shaping the world of energy and utilities in 2023?

An industry-wide transition to clean energy is a huge undertaking that will require many years and multiple dollars in the right investments. To make the best use of both time and money, two things will need to happen from a policy standpoint. The first is long-term clarity on state and national regulatory requirements. Clear policies would help energy companies to plan the right investments that make the most sense for them and their customers. 

The second thing is to create streamlined processes for large infrastructure projects. Capital projects can be delayed because of process complexities and unclear requirements. More efficient processes would help all parties to achieve the goal of generating, transmitting and delivering safe, reliable, low- or no-carbon energy with the right level of investment. In the end, clearly stated policies would encourage the massive electrification required to achieve net-zero carbon emissions in the needed timeframe.

How do you expect that the energy community will remember 2023 when all is said and done?

This will be the year when an increasing number of people will realize that a net zero carbon future will need more than wind and solar energy resources to achieve net-zero carbon goals. In fact, the industry continues to increase its investments in commercial-scale technologies that will innovate and change the power system on a grand scale. The industry can maintain reliability of the system over time, in all types of weather, with a technological-advanced and diverse generation portfolio.

Rebecca Foster, CEO of VEIC

What is the one technology you expect to make waves in 2023, whether a new technology introduced, an existing one finally reaching scale, or simply a story that's under the radar and will blow up in 2023?

2023 will be all about heat pumps. Electrification is finally getting the attention it deserves, and new federal tax incentives and electrification programs are adding momentum to this technology that leading efficiency programs have been supporting for years. But with emerging technologies, we can never just look one year into the future. VEIC is part of the team working on the CalNEXT program, which is identifying the next generation of electric emerging technologies that will drive clean energy for years to come. I’ll be excited to share more predictions based on our work next year!

Are there any new trends you expect to see from the utilities when it comes to strategy, customer relations, new programs, or business strategy that will dominate attention in 2023?

Pressures are coming at clean energy programs from all sides. Whether it’s rising baselines from increases in codes and standards, workforce shortages, project delays, or inflation, clean energy programs need to get creative.  With these pressures, clean energy programs are turning to new programs to find savings and help their customers. At VEIC, refrigerant management programs are a big part of our 2023 portfolio. Addressing refrigerant leaks and moving to natural refrigerants offers both significant electricity savings as well as powerful greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Refrigerant management is a great option for clean energy programs today and will be even more important as heat pumps gain traction over the coming years.

How do you expect that the energy community will remember 2023 when all is said and done?

2023 will be a turning point. I am an optimist, so I see 2023 as the year the historic Federal investments in clean energy begin to roll out and the year that the clean energy community finally centers equity in our work, ensuring that everyone can access the benefits of clean energy and no one is left behind in this critical transition.  

Jacob Williams, General Manager and CEO of FMPA

Dawn Weisz, CEO at MCE

For 2023 MCE is most excited about Virtual Power Plants, also referred to as networked distributed energy technologies. We have been working on expanding access to distributed technologies like battery storage, EVs and EV charging, and electrification measures throughout the Bay Area for the last few years and we’re excited to see this technology move into its next stage with our first Virtual Power Plant program. Distributed technologies are so valuable because they reduce customer costs, lower carbon emissions, and can be used to increase grid reliability. Our virtual power plant (VPP) pilot in Richmond, California really expands on those concepts, helping low-income and first-time home buyers access these technologies without increased cost to them.

Like a real power plant, a virtual power plant, or VPP, provides electricity to the grid. Instead of typical utility-scale generation which is sited in one place, a VPP harnesses distributed energy resources that are spread across an entire community. By coordinating these devices, VPPs can quickly supply power to the grid or reduce energy consumption during critical times. Because VPPs take advantage of privately owned resources (such as homeowners’ solar panels and batteries), they can save a utility money, and the utility in turn could pass those savings on to customers in the form of direct payment or reduced rates.

This not only meets our own climate and energy goals but it helps address housing equity in one of the most impacted communities in the Bay. We’re hoping to expand this structure across our service area to support VPPs in other communities that are impacted by outages from extreme weather or Public Safety Power Shutoff events, reducing health and financial impacts and replacing existing use of diesel backup generators. Our focus is on getting these distributed technologies in place to support customer equity and create a larger dispatchable system that will reduce outages and the need for fossil-fuel peaker plants, while also reducing costs for both MCE and our customers.

Over the last several years reliability has been a central part of policy discussions in California. As we experience an increased number of extreme weather events, like heat events which we experienced in September of 2022 or the atmospheric river this January, we’re increasingly aware of the need for better solutions to meet customer demand and prevent power outages. Also, the state’s transition to more intermittent resources, like wind and solar, increase the need to store energy and to shift energy use away from hours of limited generation. State regulators have approached this problem by setting new mandates for reliability procurement without adequate lead-time for the market to respond in a cost-effective way.  They have also issued frequent rule changes, impacting the value of already-signed contracts for power. MCE would like to see longer lead-times from regulators when they set new reliability standards, and suspending rule changes that impact already-signed contracts.These two steps would greatly reduce volatility and prices in the reliability market, and therefore stabilize prices for customers..

MCE and other community choice agencies offer a unique opportunity to explore new reliability solutions. We are looking at both the state’s needs and our customers’ needs and implementing creative strategies to support reliability without fluctuating mandates that dramatically increase costs. Our VPP is one example. Green hydrogen is another. Instead of looking to outdated solutions which increase customer costs, we need to be incentivizing new strategies and technologies that address reliability concerns while furthering climate action and supporting customer needs.

Tamara Waldmann, Director of Florida Distributed Generation Strategy at Duke Energy

What is the one technology you expect to make waves in 2023, whether a new technology was introduced, an existing one finally reaching scale, or simply a story that's under the radar and will blow up in 2023?

At Duke Energy, we are leveraging innovative technology across our Florida service territory to upgrade the energy grid, generate cleaner energy, improve reliability and help customers become more energy efficient. Some of these technologies include utility-scale solar, energy storage, microgrids, transportation electrification and self-healing technology, among others.

We believe solar PV and battery energy storage will evolve and play a significant role in how we deliver more flexible clean energy to our Florida customers, now and into the future. Since the late 1980s, the company has been advancing solar PV technologies in Florida. Our near-term solar generation portfolio represents over $2 billion of investment, about 1,500 MW of emission-free generation and approximately 5 million solar panels in Florida by mid-2024.

Last year, the company achieved a major milestone and delivered on its $1 billion solar commitment and installed more than 700 megawatts (MW) of clean, renewable energy in Florida, with a total of 10 solar sites completed from 2018 through 2022. The company also announced its community solar program, Clean Energy Connection. The program lets Florida customers support renewable energy, subscribe to solar power and earn credits toward their electricity bills – all without equipment installation or maintenance. The program, operates according to a “shared solar” model, which means that solar power generating sites are supported by multiple community subscribers who earn bill credits based on the renewable energy their subscription share produces.

Are there any new trends you expect to see from the utilities when it comes to strategy, customer relations, new programs, or business strategy that will dominate attention in 2023?

As a company, we must be ready to meet our customers’ growing needs. We believe in a balanced pace of change while also maintaining affordability and reliability for our customers. Customers deserve electricity that is reliable, increasingly clean and more secure. Through cost management and careful planning, Duke Energy Florida has made thoughtful investments to significantly enhance service reliability and reduce emissions. We will continue to work hard to provide the best possible price for our customers and ensure safe, reliable, cleaner energy 24/7.

What are you looking for from the world of policy when it comes to shaping the world of energy and utilities in 2023?

As a result of the company’s continued commitment to solar investments, Duke Energy is already passing approximately $56 million of corporate tax savings annually to Florida customers from the Inflation Reduction Act. For residential customers, this resulted in a decrease of $1.90 per 1,000 kilowatt-hours beginning in January 2023. Additionally, the company is refunding Florida customers another $11.7 million in tax savings from 2022 solar generation.

How do you expect that the energy community will remember 2023 when all is said and done?

Duke Energy will continue to deliver on our promise to build a cleaner, brighter energy future for our customers. In 2023, we will rise above and navigate the global challenges that have impacted the energy industries. Over the next decade, the company will continue to make innovative and targeted investments in additional solar power plants, battery storage technology, community solar, transportation electrification and a modernized power grid to help meet customers’ needs for diverse, reliable energy solutions.

Jeremy Nelms, CEO of Flint Energies

Are there any new trends you expect to see from the utilities when it comes to strategy, customer relations, new programs, or business strategy that will dominate attention in 2023?

My expectation is that managing charging of electric vehicles will become more of the norm in the coming year(s).  Utilities cannot predict exactly when a power system crisis may arise and building passive rate structures that “normally” incentivize charging off peak may have a negative impact to the power system in the event of extreme cold weather events like what was experienced with Winter Storm Elliott this past December.  By providing managed charging going forward, the utility can have more flexibility on the power system and the EV driver is less dependent on just “off peak” charging in the middle of the night.  Plus, whole home time of use rates just to support EV charging does not necessarily mean that individuals will see an improved financial situation as many of a family’s daily habits much change to realize the full benefits of time of use billing.  The best way to ensure the acceptance of electrified transportation is to remove the barriers of using the technology.  Managed charging moves us closer to that being a reality.