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The Ecological Goal of the Energy Transition,as stated Adnan Z. Amin, Director-General of the International Renewable Energy Agency, is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and prevent the most serious effects of climate change. Replacing energy Fossil Fuel Systems (FFS) with Renewable Energy Systems (RES), as follows from this statement, is a way to achieve the Ecological Goal.

Economical Goal of the Energy Transition, as follows from a report commissioned at 2012 by the German government, is economic growth. The increase in the global market for environmentally friendly generation and storage of electricity from approximately 313 billion Euros in 2011 to more than 1 trillion Euros in 2025, as follows from this report, is a way to achieve the Economical Goal.

Modern energy uses many types of FFS and RES. FFS are called "environmentally dirty" because an emission of greenhouse gas is in places of their work. RES are called "environmentally friendly" because no an emission of greenhouse gas is in places of their work.  This property has become a source of widespread belief that to improve the global ecology it is enough to start replacing all FFS with any RES of the corresponding power. It has been shown above that states encourage and facilitate the expenditure of gigantic financial resources for the creation and installation of RES in exchange for FFS thanks to this belief.

The first thing that immediately attracts attention when familiarizing yourself with RES projects  for the Energy Transition is their large sizes and weight with relatively low power. Windmills with towers and blades hundreds of meters in size and weighing thousands of tons, solar panels with kilometer sizes and huge platforms at sea, which weigh thousands of tons at an installed capacity of up to 10 MW, are the RES prototypes for the Energy Transition.

Obviously, for the production of each kilogram of their structure, the energy received from the FFS was expended! That is, the production of each kilogram is accompanied by the emission of greenhouse gases from FFS. This is a lot of energy and greenhouse gas emissions in the aggregate, if you count them from mining to disposal of each RES.

Any replacement of the Ecological Goal with an Economic Goal or any other goal, ceteris paribus, increases the duration of the Energy Transition. Moreover, the “Energy Transition” may continue indefinitely with an infinitely long environmental degradation.

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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jun 22, 2020

Interesting point about having to simultaneously keep in mind the economic and the ecological-- if you're only looking at one of those two, you're likely looking at an incomplete solution. 

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture
Vladimir Vinogradov on Jun 23, 2020

Matt, you are right.

Bob Meinetz's picture
Bob Meinetz on Jun 22, 2020

Vladimir, let's take a look at who is behind your source. The NCRE Project ("Noologistic Choosing a Renewable Energy") is a creation of Vladimir and Valery Matveev, who appear to be brothers. Their website, https://noologistics.ru/, reveals where their true interests lie: promoting a very non-renewable, non-sustainable energy future dependent on fossil-fuel methane (translated from Russian):

"The book contains the results of many years of practical work of the authors to create a technology of reasonable (noo) (where noo - from the Greek. Νόος - mind) control of large-scale gas and energy supply networks containing gas wells, gas pumping units (GPU), gas air cooling devices (ABO) , gas treatment plants for transport, steam boilers, multi-stage steam turbines, pumps, heat exchangers, pipelines, condensers, valves, etc. It is called Noologistics technology. There are no analogues of this technology in the world, moreover, at present, much of what is described in it is considered to be technically not feasible, including:
   • calculation of the redistribution of the total load between the steps of the steam turbine due to changes in the values ​​of steam extraction in them...."

As in the U.S., Russian fossil-fuel entrepreneurs have recognized the value of renewable energy as a marketing device to sell natural gas.

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture
Vladimir Vinogradov on Jun 23, 2020

Bob, as far as I can tell, this article is about the criteria for choosing renewable energy systems. As for his book, it is better to ask the author about it.

Valery Matveev's picture
Valery Matveev on Jun 23, 2020

Bob, I am a co-author of the article under discussion Valery Matveev. The article describes the mathematical apparatus and algorithm of the most effective way to achieve the Main Goal of the Energy Transition. This method guarantees the fastest Energy Transition and the best environmental parameters. The essence of the method is to provide the maximum value of the self-reproduction coefficient Ksr of Renewable Energy Systems (RES) when replacing Fossil Fuel Systems (FFS). We calculate Ksr as the ratio of the total amount of energy produced by RES to the total amount of energy spent on its application. The value of Ksr is in the range from 0.4 to 10 for real RES. Therefore, the economy should provide the use of RES of the highest possible value of Ksr. The Energy Transition will last indefinitely with accelerated environmental degradation at a value of Ksr = 1 or less. In this case, the economy in monetary terms will grow. Therefore, it is necessary to globally ban the mass use of RES of small Ksr values ​​for the Energy Transition. There is no mention of natural gas in the article. The essence of the article is the fastest and most environmentally friendly way to stop using any type of fossil fuel.

Our book, The Noo Logistics, describes the technology for moving from commodity-money relationships among people to value relationships. The mentioned value relationships need the efficient use of natural resources. Quote you have taken from the book is about this.

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture
Vladimir Vinogradov on Jun 24, 2020

Valery, what about the timing of the energy transition? Are there ways to evaluate it?

Valery Matveev's picture
Valery Matveev on Jun 24, 2020

The timing of the Energy Transition depends on the real Main Goal of its participants. If the real Main Goal is global environmental protection, then the Energy Transition period may be calculated quite accurately. This will require information on the amount of annual investment to achieve this. But its implementation will require the firm will of the governments of all states. If the real Main Goal is the growth of a market economy, then such an Energy Transition may last until catastrophic environmental degradation. And then humanity will either perish or be forced to move onto the solid plan of the Energy Transition. But it will be under another climatic conditions.

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture
Vladimir Vinogradov on Jun 25, 2020

Exactly, Valery.

Vladimir Vinogradov's picture

Thank Vladimir for the Post!

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