IIJA have an impact – maybe not the one DOE wanted…

With the announcement of billions in grants, there are two immediately noticeable impacts, both negative for most entities.

In the last 2 weeks breaker lead times are up by 15-20 weeks, with some manufacturers now reporting 160-200 weeks (almost 4 years).

In the same time frame manufacturers of service transformers are reporting a 8-20 week jump in their lead times too. Pushing lead times into the 3 year range.

The latest panic buyers? Renewable developers who placed orders for all planned projects through 2026 or 2030.

While manufacturers would like to expand manufacturing, they are held hostage by the pending DOE NOPR on service transformers that will obsolete their factories and equipment if DOE confirms that they are moving forward with the NOPR. There are already groups lining up to sue DOE over the NOPR if DOE proceeds, so expect that we will have no transformer investment until those lawsuits are settled in Likely 2027 or 2030, depending on the number of appeals.

This in turn holds renewable and electric vehicle chargers hostage, and if there is a major hurricane or other natural disaster, stocks are low enough that restoration times because of damaged transformers may be measured in months, not days.

Secretary of Energy hashtag#Granholm and hashtag#DOE have been holding the industry hostage since President hashtag#Biden took office and seem to have no plan of helping the industry. At this point an investment (once the NOPR is settled) of at least $1 billion is required to close the gap. That number will grow with the decarbonization of buildings and transportation.

There is no “cool” slogan that we can all chant in front of DOE, but we all need to put pressure on DOE and Congress to resolve this issue. DOE needs to stop handing out money, until this is resolved.