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Predictions for 2022

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Richard Brooks's picture
Co-Founder and Lead Software Engineer Reliable Energy Analytics LLC

Inventor of patent pending (16/933161) technology: METHODS FOR VERIFICATION OF SOFTWARE OBJECT AUTHENTICITY AND INTEGRITY and the Software Assurance Guardian™ (SAG ™) Point Man™ (SAG-PM™)...

  • Member since 2018
  • 1,428 items added with 586,017 views
  • Jan 25, 2022
  • 1066 views

This item is part of the Special Issue - 2022-01 - Power Industry 2022 Trends & Predictions, click here for more

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Climate Change

  • Extreme weather events will continue to increase in intensity: 75% likelihood
  • Extreme weather events will become more frequent through the remainder of this decade: 70% likelihood
  • States will continue to promote decarbonization initiatives but will not meet their stated emission reduction targets: 90% likelihood

Energy Markets

  • There will be more hours with negative energy prices in real-time wholesale energy markets as renewable generating supply increases: 85% likelihood
  • Capacity payments will plummet as more resources participate in the wholesale capacity markets as a result of FERC Order 2222 and enhancements to MOPR rules: 80% likelihood
  • Fossil fuel fired generators will struggle to make profits: 75% likelihood
  • State and Federal regulators will reach a consensus on a just and reasonable capacity market design that satisfies State Energy Goals: 2% likelihood
  • There will be no carbon tax applied to electricity in order to incentive electrification of transportation and HVAC applications: 65% likelihood

Grid Reliability and Resilience

  • A national standard and framework for essential grid services will emerge in 2022: 90% likelihood
  • Flexible resources that can respond quickly to operator dispatch instructions will be in greater demand in order to maintain grid reliability: 90% likelihood
  • Demand Response resources will continue to provide essential grid services needed for reliability: 100% likelihood
  • Much needed transmission capacity will be approved and construction will begin, at levels required to meet decarbonization goals set by States: 1% likelihood
  • Small scale, safe nuclear powered generating solutions will become viable as a technology, but public perceptions of nuclear energy will remain skeptical, preventing broad adoption: 80% likelihood
  • A total blackout will take down the entire US Grid: 0% likelihood
  • A partial blackout will occur somewhere on the US Grid that will impact at least 500,000 customers: 70% likelihood
  • A partial blackout will occur somewhere on the US Grid that will impact at least 3,000,000 customers: 2% likelihood
Discussions
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Kathryn Wagner's picture
Kathryn Wagner on Jan 25, 2022

Richard, I enjoyed your article! Very insightful!

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 26, 2022

Thank, you, Kathryn.

Stuart McCafferty's picture
Stuart McCafferty on Jan 26, 2022

Hi Dick, this was great!  I read through most of the predictions and this one I had to read twice.  Lots of stuff!  And, great insight as always.  Thanks for the contribution.

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 26, 2022

Thanks Stu, it's fun to make these predictions. I approach this the same way Gartner does with their predictions, citing probability of each prediction. I'm sure there will be a healthy portion of crow waiting for me to eat in December. Thanks for commenting.

Very much looking forward to receiving your book, you're a true Sage in our industry.

Paul Korzeniowski's picture
Paul Korzeniowski on Feb 7, 2022

More impactful ransomware and cyber incursion events will occur across key segments of critical infrastructure, including the electric grid, in 2022: 100% likelihood.

 

Sad but true. The cybersecurity industry is a few steps behind the bad guys for many reasons.  The growing interest in Zero Trust systems, which verify users at every step of a transaction rather than just when they enter the network, should help ward off some bad guys. However, systems are so complex -- and growing more so every day -- that is becomes difficult to envision a time when this landscape tips back to utilities and away from the hackers. 

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