Welcome to the new Energy Central — same great community, now with a smoother experience. To login, use your Energy Central email and reset your password.

Richard "Dick" Brooks
Richard "Dick" Brooks
Expert Member
Top Contributor

Predictions for 2022

Cybersecurity

Climate Change

  • Extreme weather events will continue to increase in intensity: 75% likelihood
  • Extreme weather events will become more frequent through the remainder of this decade: 70% likelihood
  • States will continue to promote decarbonization initiatives but will not meet their stated emission reduction targets: 90% likelihood

Energy Markets

  • There will be more hours with negative energy prices in real-time wholesale energy markets as renewable generating supply increases: 85% likelihood
  • Capacity payments will plummet as more resources participate in the wholesale capacity markets as a result of FERC Order 2222 and enhancements to MOPR rules: 80% likelihood
  • Fossil fuel fired generators will struggle to make profits: 75% likelihood
  • State and Federal regulators will reach a consensus on a just and reasonable capacity market design that satisfies State Energy Goals: 2% likelihood
  • There will be no carbon tax applied to electricity in order to incentive electrification of transportation and HVAC applications: 65% likelihood

Grid Reliability and Resilience

  • A national standard and framework for essential grid services will emerge in 2022: 90% likelihood
  • Flexible resources that can respond quickly to operator dispatch instructions will be in greater demand in order to maintain grid reliability: 90% likelihood
  • Demand Response resources will continue to provide essential grid services needed for reliability: 100% likelihood
  • Much needed transmission capacity will be approved and construction will begin, at levels required to meet decarbonization goals set by States: 1% likelihood
  • Small scale, safe nuclear powered generating solutions will become viable as a technology, but public perceptions of nuclear energy will remain skeptical, preventing broad adoption: 80% likelihood
  • A total blackout will take down the entire US Grid: 0% likelihood
  • A partial blackout will occur somewhere on the US Grid that will impact at least 500,000 customers: 70% likelihood
  • A partial blackout will occur somewhere on the US Grid that will impact at least 3,000,000 customers: 2% likelihood
5 replies