PG&E starts publicly predicting power shutoffs one week out

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Aug 29, 2019 9:15 pm GMTAug 29, 2019 9:17 pm GMT
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PG&E starts publicly predicting power shutoffs one week out

PG&E on Tuesday unveiled a new section of its website that forecasts the potential for power shutoffs across its service territory.

Source: www.sfchronicle.com

Are there any outages in the forecast? PG&E is letting customers know on a new section of their website (PGE.com). Now customers can view a seven day forecast that shows the potential for power shutoffs across nine geographic zones in its service territory. Before shutting off power, PG&E will considers the presence of a red flag fire-danger warning from the National Weather Service, the humidity levels and wind speed.

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Bob Meinetz on Aug 30, 2019 5:05 am GMT

Nevelyn, "fire danger" is only PG&E's excuse for unplanned outages. Outages happen on hot summer afternoons when up to 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas/hour must be rushed into plants in PG&E's service area, as the sun goes down, to come to solar's rescue. At those times the pipes, and the pumps, aren't big enough. And the lights go out.

This is, part and parcel, the fault of unreliable, unpredictable renewable energy, and all of its advocates running around putting panels on rooftops in prep for the coming "clean energy future" - one we've been told is only five years away, for the last fifty.

Instead of going off-grid, self-absorbed trustfund brats whine online about big, bad, utilities and nuclear plants, on computers powered by big, bad utilities and nuclear plants. To them I say: "Go off-grid. Please, just STFU and go."

Bas Gresnigt on Aug 30, 2019 7:50 am GMT

Why didn't they organize local storage of gas nearby those power plants?
Real bad management?

They knew (or should have known) about the coming rise of renewable since 2000 when Germany decided to their Energiewende scenario with massive rollout of a.o. wind and solar, targeting major price decreases of wind & solar in order to make them cheaper than nuclear and fossil.
So they had more than enough time to prepare!

Bob Meinetz on Aug 31, 2019 8:20 pm GMT

Probably because Californians didn't want their electricity prices to be among the highest in the world, while still failing to meet emissions targets. Like Germany.

"Why didn't they organize local storage of gas nearby those power plants?"

Because we were told by antinuclear Dutch activists we wouldn't need it.

Bas Gresnigt on Sep 4, 2019 6:52 am GMT

"failing to meet emissions targets. Like Germany." ??

As the article and the Energiewende are primarily about electricity we should consider the reducctions regarding electricity. German emissions per KWh produced reduced from 764gCO²/KWh in 1990 to 474gCO²/KWh in 2018.
A reduction of 38% already. (figures from UBA)

Still 2 years of improvement to go....

Matt Chester on Aug 30, 2019 1:22 pm GMT

I definitely recognize that PG&E has lost a fair amount of benefit of the doubt recently when it comes to what they say publicly, but this story ostensibly is one about alert customers about when fire or weather related outages might happen, which is no doubt a good thing.

From the article:

Factors PG&E considers when determining whether a shutoff is necessary include the presence of a red flag fire-danger warning from the National Weather Service, humidity levels 20% and below and a forecast of sustained winds above 25 mph with gusts of more than 45 mph.

Joe Deely on Aug 30, 2019 10:09 pm GMT

Nevelyn, "fire danger" is only PG&E's excuse for unplanned outages. Outages happen on hot summer afternoons when up to 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas/hour must be rushed into plants in PG&E's service area, as the sun goes down, to come to solar's rescue. At those times the pipes, and the pumps, aren't big enough. And the lights go out.

Bob here is an example from yesterday of NG ramping on CAISO to "rescue" solar.

Can you provide us with an example of when this caused the lights to go out? Date and time please. Thanks.

Bob Meinetz on Aug 31, 2019 8:45 pm GMT

Examples abound Joe:

https://downdetector.com/status/pge/map

The wind is 5mph in Gilroy today - no "wildfire danger", yet PG&E is, at this moment, deliberately shutting down areas to prevent a gridwide blackout. All thanks to unpredictable solar being a PITA.

Curtailment of solar is double what it was last year, there have been hundreds of mid-afternoon outages over the last couple of months, and September is the hottest month of the year.

Joe Deely on Sep 1, 2019 1:12 am GMT

Examples abound Joe:

I don't think so Bob. You said outages happen due to NG ramping and the pipes and pumps not being big enough. Where is your example?

The wind is 5mph in Gilroy today - no "wildfire danger", yet PG&E is, at this moment, deliberately shutting down areas to prevent a gridwide blackout.

Are you pretending this is your example? Can you provide a link for PG&E shutting off power in Gilroy? Here is current PG&E weather page. No planned outages - anywhere.

Curtailment of solar is double what it was last year,

What does solar curtailment have to do with outages? This is not an example of NG ramping causing an outage. Where is your example?

there have been hundreds of mid-afternoon outages over the last couple of months, and September is the hottest month of the year.

September is hot. That is not an example. Where is your example?

One more thing: The steepest 3-hour ramps for NG occur earlier in the year not in the summer/hottest months. The record for 3 hour ramp was 15,639MW on Jan 1st of this year. The largest ramp in July was 10,981MW.

Bob Meinetz on Sep 1, 2019 5:49 pm GMT

"September is hot. That is not an example!...Wh..wh...where is your example...the steepest 3-hour ramps for NG occur earlier in the year not in the summer/hottest months!! The record for 3 hour ramp was 15,639MW on Jan 1st of this year. The largest ramp in July was 10,981MW. The largest ramp in December 1934 was 3,215.33845MW!!"

September 2019 is nine and one-half hours old, Joe, and of course if you consult PG&E's website about how lousy their electricity service is you might not get a good answer. Please.

Know anyone in the Bay area? Mid-afternoon outages are currently happening all the time, and will only get worse in September.

Joe Deely on Sep 1, 2019 8:03 pm GMT

Still no example Bob...

But we do have your comment in writing:

Nevelyn, "fire danger" is only PG&E's excuse for unplanned outages. Outages happen on hot summer afternoons when up to 4 billion cubic feet of natural gas/hour must be rushed into plants in PG&E's service area, as the sun goes down, to come to solar's rescue. At those times the pipes, and the pumps, aren't big enough. And the lights go out.

You imply this happens all the time and yet not one example.

I live/work in the Bay Area. There has been no increase in outages. But you are right - PG&E service is lousy - has been that way for as long as I have been here.

Bas Gresnigt on Aug 30, 2019 7:38 am GMT

How come that such electricity service degradation is accepted in a rich country such as USA?? It's unthinkable in German, NL, DK, etc.

Bob Meinetz on Aug 30, 2019 3:10 pm GMT

How come Germany, with its glorious Energiewende, will not even be close to meeting its 2020 emissions target, Bas?

Joe Deely on Aug 30, 2019 11:26 pm GMT

Where Germany stands in 2018 vs 2020 target... Need to be at 750 MMT by 2020 to meet goal.

Bob Meinetz on Aug 31, 2019 8:49 pm GMT

"According to environment ministry calculations from October 2017, Germany is set to widely miss its goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by [of] 40% by 2020."

Either: a) both the EIA and the German Environment Ministry are now conspiring against the poor solar industry, or b) solar will again disappoint as it has so consistently in the past. What are the chances?

Joe Deely on Sep 1, 2019 12:04 am GMT

Bob,

I didn't say they were going to meet their goal - I was just showing where things stood.

at end of 2017 - emissions were reduced 27.5%

at end of 2018 - emissions were reduced 30.8%

They have only two years left - so it is likely they will fall short of 40%.

Bas Gresnigt on Sep 4, 2019 7:17 am GMT

The agreed Kyoto target was a 20% emission reduction in 2020 compared to 1990. In an overconfidence state of mind, German govt decided to double that reduction (I believe in ~2008).

Though they won't reach it, they will end at a reduction of ~35%. Only very few countries in the world reached such reduction!

Despite being the by far biggest polluter pp in the world, US emissions will probably reduce <10% compared to the Kyoto 1990 level...

So its clear their Energiewende is an exceptional success. Not only with the reduction of nuclear towards zero (2023) which is its prime target, but also regarding the increase of renewable (last year renewable produced >40% of their public electricity) and also regarding emissions reductions.

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