Visualizing US Oil & Gas Production (Through July 2021)

This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from 152,640 horizontal wells in 13 US states, through June. Ohio & West Virginia are deselected in most views, as these states have not yet released July production data.

Total production

US tight oil production was flat m-o-m in July, at 7.2 million b/d (after upcoming revisions), almost 1.5 million b/d below the November 2019 peak. Natural gas output was also basically flat, at just above 70 Bcf/d (excluding Ohio & West Virginia).

Supply Projection

With the 475 rigs that are drilling horizontal wells in the 13 US states that we cover (according to Baker Hughes), we expect a gradual increase in tight oil & gas output in the coming months and years, assuming constant rig & well productivity. From our Supply Projection dashboard:

US tight oil outlook, by basin, based on current drilling activity & well performance

The bottom chart plots the historical and projected tight oil output, with these assumptions. US tight gas is already setting new records every month, despite that the gas-directed rig count has only moderately increased year to date.

Well productivity

The following overview shows how well productivity, as measured by the average cumulative oil recovered in the first 12 months, per 1,000′ of lateral length, has changed over time in the 4 major US tight oil basins:

Normalized well performance in the major oil basins (12-month cum. oil production, per thousand feet). Hz. oil wells completed since 2011 only.

Note how on this basis well productivity improvements have recently stalled, and even appear to be falling in some basins (DJ-Niobrara and the Eagle Ford). The 2 charts at the bottom display how lateral lengths and proppant loadings have changed in the same time frame, on average.

Continental Resources buying Pioneer’s Delaware assets

Yesterday, Continental Resources reported that it has agreed to buy the Delaware Basin assets of Pioneer Natural Resources for $3.25 billion. These assets produced about 44 thousand b/d in August, or 8% of Pioneer’s total production:

Pioneer Natural Resources in the Delaware

As you can see in the top-right chart, Pioneer’s production in the Delaware has steadily fallen over the last 2 years. This is probably related to deteriorating well performance since 2016:

Pioneer’s well performance in the Delaware, by vintage year of first production (average cum. oil vs months on production, per 1,000

Top operators

In the final tab the output and location of the 18 largest US shale oil producers are displayed. Pioneer Natural Resources would drop to the 3rd position after closing of this deal, behind EOG and ConocoPhillips.

Finally

Early next week we will have a post on North Dakota, which has already released September production data for over 90% of the horizontal wells (available in our subscription services).

Production data is subject to revisions.