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Visualizing Permian Oil & Gas Production (Through June 2021)

Enno Peters's picture
CEO ShaleProfile

Background in AI, worked on developing Supply Chain Planning & Optimization solutions for Quintiq, setting up its business in China. Focus on company direction and the technical development...

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This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

This interactive presentation contains the latest oil & gas production data from all 31,497 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through June 2021.

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Total Production

Tight oil production in the Permian rose by 1% to about 4.1 million b/d in June (after revisions, horizontal wells only). Natural gas production held flat at above 16 Bcf/d.

Supply Projection

The horizontal rig count in the basin has doubled from the low in August last year to 238 rigs as of last week (according to Baker Hughes). Given that each of these rigs drills about 1.2 horizontal wells a month, on average, the resulting number of wells completed each day is about 10. Our Supply Projection dashboard shows that this level of activity, combined with the latest figures on well productivity, should allow the basin to show modest growth in oil production in the coming years:

Tight oil outlook in the Permian, based on current drilling activity & well/rig productivity

Most of the currently projected growth in the Permian will come from the New Mexico side of the basin, which is already setting new production records:

Tight oil outlook in the New Mexico side of the Permian

Well productivity

Well productivity growth on the New Mexico side has held up relatively strongly, which is visible in the following overview:

Well productivity growth in the Permian Basin in southeastern New Mexico. Average oil production rate vs. cumulative oil production, including 20-yr forecasted production, by vintage.

The chart on the right shows the actual and forecasted production profiles for all the horizontal wells in this area, that came online through 2019. Every year, wells have peaked at higher average rates, and are trending towards larger EURs. Most of the productivity growth in the last few years can be explained by longer laterals. This screenshot was taken from our Production Profiles dashboard that includes forecasts.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”) the production and well positions are displayed for the 20 largest producers in the Permian. The top 3 operators, Pioneer Natural Resources, EOG and Devon Energy are all at or near their historical output records.

Finally

We will have a new post on the Eagle Ford early next week, followed by a post on Pennsylvania (which just released complete July production data, already available in our services).

Production and completion data are subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

Sources

For these presentations, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • Texas RRC. Oil production is estimated for individual wells, based on a number of sources, such as lease & pending production data, well completion & inactivity reports, regular well tests, and oil production data.
  • OCD in New Mexico. Individual well production data is provided.
  • FracFocus.org

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3lrtR4c

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