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Visualizing Permian Oil & Gas Production (Through January 2020)

Enno Peters's picture
CEO ShaleProfile

Background in AI, worked on developing Supply Chain Planning & Optimization solutions for Quintiq, setting up its business in China. Focus on company direction and the technical development...

  • Member since 2018
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  • Apr 23, 2020
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This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

These interactive presentations contain the latest oil & gas production data from all 26,331 horizontal wells in the Permian (Texas & New Mexico) that started producing from 2008/2009 onward, through January.

Total production

January oil production came in at about 4 million bo/d (after upcoming revisions). I expect to see a small increase from the December level when all data is in.

In the last few weeks we have again improved our handling of the data in Texas and it is now more up-to-date and complete. Already close to 90% of February production data in the state of Texas is available in our subscription services.

Supply Projection dashboard

Although the rig count has also dropped significantly in the Permian in recent weeks, the relative decline has been less than other basins. The following image, taken from our publicly available Supply projection dashboard, shows that the horizontal rig count is down to 274 as of last week. However, the bottom chart reveals that even this level of drilling activity would not make a serious dent in the long-term production capacity of the basin:

Projected rig count and oil output in the Permian Basin – assuming no changes.

This does assume that the rig count drops no further and that no production is shut-in temporarily due to the extraordinary low prices (as well as no changes in productivity). Although these assumptions are surely highly flawed, this overview does make clear that a further reduction in drilling is needed before the Permian would turn to an overall decline to help balance the markets.

Today we will have a webinar on this dashboard, at 9 am (CT). Although the maximum number of registrants has already been reached (100), we will still try to increase this number. Therefore, don’t hesitate to sign up: Register for the Supply Projection webinar

Well productivity

In the “well quality tab” the production profiles for all the wells in the Permian are available. The bottom chart allows you to see that well productivity has increased each year in the last decade. However, after normalizing for lateral length (possible in our advanced analytics service), we find that recent results are slightly down since 2016.

Advanced Insights

The ‘Advanced Insights’ presentation is displayed below:

This “Ultimate recovery” overview displays the average production rate for these wells, plotted against their cumulative recovery. Wells are grouped by the year in which production started.

Finally

As mentioned, tomorrow we will host a webinar on our Supply projection dashboard and how you can use it for your own projections.

We will have a new post on the Eagle Ford on Tuesday.

Production and completion data are subject to revisions.

Note that a significant portion of production in the Permian comes from vertical wells and/or wells that started production before 2008, which are excluded from these presentations.

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3aCwc53

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Enno Peters's picture
Thank Enno for the Post!
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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Apr 23, 2020

This does assume that the rig count drops no further and that no production is shut-in temporarily due to the extraordinary low prices (as well as no changes in productivity). Although these assumptions are surely highly flawed

Given the lag between drilling new wells and actually having production for the market, how are producers treating previously established plans for new drilling?

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