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Visualizing Haynesville Oil & Gas Production (Through March 2021)

Enno Peters's picture
CEO ShaleProfile

Background in AI, worked on developing Supply Chain Planning & Optimization solutions for Quintiq, setting up its business in China. Focus on company direction and the technical development...

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This article contains still images from the interactive dashboards available in the original blog post. To follow the instructions in this article, please use the interactive dashboards. Furthermore, they allow you to uncover other insights as well.

Visit ShaleProfile blog to explore the full interactive dashboard

This interactive presentation contains the latest gas (and a little oil) production data, from all 6,024 horizontal wells in the Haynesville that started producing from 2007, through March.

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Total production

Natural gas production in the Haynesville grew by almost 1.5 Bcf/d in March, more than recovering from the severe drop in the previous month. A fresh record was set at 11.5 Bcf/d, as we predicted in the previous post on this basin. Well productivity is at record levels (see “Well quality”). However, decline rates are also high, with wells declining exponentially in the first few years, and over half of total March output came from wells younger than 15 months (visualized in the chart above).

Horizontal drilling

Over the past month, 1 more rig was added to this basin, according to the Baker Hughes rig count. As of last week, more than half of the horizontal gas-focused rigs are active in the Haynesville (49 out of 89).

Horizontal gas rig county since 2011. Weekly Henry Hub prices on the right-hand axis.

As is shown in this chart, natural gas prices have doubled since June last year, but the rig count is still far lower than in 2017-2018, when these prices were seen last.

Supply Projection dashboard

From our Supply Projection dashboard we can immediately see what these latest rig count numbers means for future supply in the Haynesville, assuming nothing else changes (which it surely will):

Natural gas outlook in the Haynesville based on the current rig count & productivity, by county.

The top chart shows the historical horizontal rig count, by county, while the bottom chart plots historical and future natural gas supply, assuming a stable rig count and well/rig productivity. Note that interest in De Soto has fallen, while it grew in several other counties, notably Caddo, Panola and Red River.

Well productivity

How has well productivity evolved in these counties/parishes? That’s a question that can be easily answered with our Productivity Over Time dashboard:

The top right chart displays how well productivity has changed in the 4 core counties of the Haynesville

I’ve selected here all the horizontal wells that came online since 2012 in the 4 core counties/parishes of the Haynesville (Caddo, De Soto, Panola and Red River). The maps plots the position of these wells, while the top right chart reveals how well results, as measured by the average cumulative natural gas production in the first 6 months, has changed each year, for each county. In 2020 all 4 were quite close in terms of this metric, at 2.5 – 3 Bcf of natural gas in the first 6 months. Since 2017, well performance has especially improved in Panola County.

These improvements were driven by longer laterals and far more proppants, as is shown in the 2 lower graphs. In Caddo Parish, horizontal wells that were completed in the last 2 years were frac’ed with over 35 million pounds of proppants, on average, up from less than 5 million in 2013.

Top operators

In the final tab (“Top operators”), the leading 10 natural gas producers in this basin are displayed. Most of these operators are at or close to record production, except for BP, which hasn’t completed any wells since early 2020.

Finally

Next week we will have a post on all covered US states.

Production data is subject to revisions.

Sources

For this presentation, I used data gathered from the following sources:

  • The Louisiana Department of Natural Resources
  • Texas RRC. Production data is provided on lease level. Individual well production data is estimated from a range of data sources, including regular well tests, and pending lease reports.
  • FracFocus.org

 

Visit our blog to read the full post and use the interactive dashboards to gain more insight: https://bit.ly/3wiXFDG

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