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Tariq Siddiqui's picture
COO Upstream EP Advisors LLC

Oil & Energy | Business Development | Capital Projects | Offshore Wind -  Proven leader in offshore development and operations, with 25+ years’ expertise in managing business through cycles...

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  • Sep 28, 2022
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How much does oil demand fall in a 1.5 °C scenario?

1-By two-thirds over the next three decades. Demand is just 35 million b/d by 2050 in the scenario, down from 99 million b/d in 2022 – that’s 60 million b/d below our current ETO (Energy Transition Outlook - Base case)  forecast for 2050 of around 95 million b/d.

What Are The Main Drivers for the Oil demand decline ??

  1. Electrification of transportation is the main driver in the 1.5 °C scenario.
    1. The transport sector is already changing, with electric vehicles displacing gasoline-fuelled passenger cars. 
  2. More electrification,
  3. Fuel cells,
  4. Natural gas/LNG
  5. Biofuels progressively eat into diesel and gasoil (heavy road transportation), fuel oil (shipping) and jet fuel (aviation); and non-transportation uses of oil in the industrial, commercial, agricultural and residential sectors.
  6. Naphtha, primary feedstock for the petrochemical sector, proves the only product that is  most resilient oil product in the scenario buoyed by sustained demand for plastics.

How realistic is the 1.5 °C scenario?

The invasion of Ukraine has underlined how dependent the world is on oil, gas and coal.

  • The consequence is that global carbon emissions won’t fall as rapidly as hoped 
  • decarbonisation also has a crucial role in meeting energy security goals. We are seeing a simultaneous acceleration of policy to get the world onto a 1.5 °C pathway.

BOTTOMLINE

  • The signals are, that the aspiration to achieve net zero remains intact.
  • If progress this decade is a little slower, the pace of change next decade may be much faster – including disruption to oil demand.
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