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Energy Business
Alexander Fernandez
Alexander Fernandez
 · Posted in Energy Business

Navigating Uncertainty: Ecopetrol’s Financial Future in a Shifting Oil & Gas Landscape

Forecasting Ecopetrol’s Future: Scenario-Based Financial Outlook Through 2029

In this latest article, I present a detailed financial forecast for Ecopetrol under three growth scenarios—Bear (6.5% CAGR), Base (13.05% CAGR), and Bull (17.5% CAGR). The analysis models revenue, CapEx, EBITDA, D&A, net income, and free cash flow to help stakeholders understand the strategic and financial implications of each path.

Key takeaways include:

  • The impact of CapEx scaling on profitability and cash flow

  • Margin sensitivity across scenarios

  • Strategic trade-offs between reinvestment and financial resilience

This framework is designed to support capital planning, valuation modeling, and scenario stress-testing in today’s dynamic oil and gas environment.

I welcome feedback and discussion from the Energy Central community—how do you see companies like Ecopetrol navigating volatile market conditions while investing in future growth?