The recent shortages in supply and surge in oil prices have brought an upsurge in M&A deals and consolidation in Upstream Sector

Upstream Consolidation - What Are the Emerging Trends ?

There are five emerging themes seen in 2021:

1. The shear strength in in rebound of M&A 
2. The deal making has become global, even though hotbed is USA
3. The energy transition is emerging as a dominant driver, manifesting in different ways.  The bigger IOCs’ strategy is to decarbonise, diversify and divest.  Private equity, among others, has continued to take advantage, scooping up unwanted assets to harvest cash flow.
4. What we are witnessing is the tip of the iceberg of what’s coming for sector consolidation.

• The upstream industry today is highly fragmented – there are over 2,300 companies producing less than 15,000 boe/d; and 300-plus producing more than 60,000 boe/d.
• There will be fewer, bigger E&P companies, falling into three broad business models sustainable in a decarbonising world:
  • New Big Oil: aggregators of the larger independents
  • Adapted E&Ps: still sizeable but focused on cash-generative advantaged assets and niches
  • Super-Private E&P: delisting and absorbing publicly traded E&Ps.

5.  Flurry of upstream IPOs in 2022 with market conditions looking favourable again

Bottomline

This is a last opportunity to consolidate ; this upcycle might prove to be the last.