In this post, I present a structured, scenario-based financial forecast for Petrobras, focused on the period from 2025 to 2029. Using actual historical performance data from 2021 to 2024, the model builds three growth cases—Bear (1% CAGR), Base (2.87% CAGR), and Bull (4.5% CAGR)—to estimate future revenue, operating income, CapEx, net income, and free cash flow.
Key takeaways include:
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CapEx strategy varies by scenario: Petrobras may scale investment from conservative (8.5% of revenue) to aggressive (12.5%) depending on market conditions and policy priorities.
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Operating margins are company-specific: Historical margins (averaging 39.4%) offer a more accurate forecast base than general industry averages.
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Simplified FCF modeling: While the model does not include depreciation or working capital, it highlights Petrobras’s potential for sustainable free cash flow under different growth conditions.
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Investment planning implications: Scenario modeling helps assess Petrobras’s resilience, especially as it navigates energy transition dynamics, government influence, and global oil price volatility.
This analysis is intended to be educational and practical—providing energy professionals, financial analysts, and strategists with a grounded framework to explore Petrobras’s future financial trajectory.