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Drones targeted Russian oil refineries. Moscow is strengthening its front line, but the attackers' identity is unknown...

image credit: Ukrainian troops preparing for battle/Editing by Germán & Co
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Germán José Manuel Toro Ghio, son of Germán Alfonso and Jenny Isabel Cristina, became a citizen of planet Earth in the cold dawn of Sunday, May 11, 1958, in Santiago, capital of southern Chile....

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  • Jun 1, 2023

Intelligence reports suggest enemy forces are advancing ahead of a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.

  Media Editing By Germán & Co, June 1, 2023

According to reports, the Ilyinsky oil refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region was minimally impacted by a possible drone attack. A fire incident occurred at the Afipsky refinery, spreading flames over an area of 1,000 square feet. The regional governor, Veniamin Kondratyev, posits that a drone may have caused the fire, although there were no reported injuries. Regrettably, there has been an increase in drone strikes targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations, which have expanded beyond the confines of the front line. The Russian government has attributed responsibility to Ukraine for these occurrences, and military analysts propose that they may be a component of shaping operations in anticipation of a possible counteroffensive by the forces of Kyiv.

The rise in drone attacks on Russian infrastructure and military targets beyond the front line is worrying. Moscow blames Ukraine, but Kyiv has denied direct involvement in such operations. Military analysts describe the attacks as shaping the stage for a wider counteroffensive by Kyiv's forces. The M1 Abrams tank is a powerful weapon for the U.S., but its complex technology and turbine engine may pose logistical challenges for Ukraine. Drones have been targeting residential buildings in Moscow, including one near a residence of President Vladimir Putin where several were downed. Ukrainian officials denied involvement but expect more strikes. Putin praised Moscow's air defenses but suggested improvements are needed.

Russia is losing the initiative in the Ukraine conflict, say, Western officials. Moscow is reacting to Ukrainian offensives that are setting the battlefield agenda. Russia is reinforcing its defences in Ukraine's east and south. Kyiv claims to be ready for an offensive. The operation will involve multiple brigades with Western-trained soldiers and modern equipment from Ukraine's allies.

Western officials say the nightly drone-and-missile attacks against Ukrainian cities to weaken its air defences and defence capacity has failed. The U.S. has pledged $300 million in military aid to Ukraine, including Patriot munitions, air defence equipment, artillery and tank shells, and mine-clearing systems.

The U.S. has provided $18.7 billion in military equipment from existing stocks and ordered $6 billion in new supplies for Kyiv. The U.S. has given Ukraine over $37.6 billion in security assistance since Russia's invasion. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes any support from Japan for Ukraine. Japanese policies prohibit providing lethal weapons to nations at war, so Japan has only given nonlethal aid to Ukraine, such as food rations, helmets, and bulletproof vests.

Western officials claim Russia is using its military to strengthen border areas in response to recent drone attacks and a Ukrainian-backed incursion in Belgorod, Bryansk, and other regions.

German Toro Ghio's picture
German Toro Ghio on Jun 1, 2023

Crossing the line can be dangerous.

In September 2002, I published on an essay titled: *"Beware of Starving the Enemy of Oxygen." The paper delved into the dangerous tactic of depriving the adversary of oxygen. The praxis entails maintaining an open door to any potential solution that has been identified. The article "Biden Shows Growing Appetite to Cross Putin's Red Lines," published in the Wall Street Journal, offers valuable insights into President Biden's inclination to confront the limitations imposed by the Russian leader, Putin. Despite the suspicions of a potential global conflict, this action is a subject of significant apprehension. The former Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, has warned that when two powers of similar strength oppose, it often results in armed conflict. The need for clearly defined principles for conflict management is reminiscent of the period preceding the onset of World War I. The unresolved inquiry concerns the feasibility of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States and whether it can be achieved without the potential risk of military conflict. Kissinger proposes the implementation of measures to foster competition in strategic domains, as well as the establishment of an ongoing high-level dialogue between Beijing and Washington. Unfortunately, there has been a significant increase in the frequency of reports concerning drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure and military installations. The extent of these attacks has exceeded the confines of the front line. It can be categorized as shaping operations, which may serve as a preliminary step towards a counteroffensive by Kyiv. The recent fire incident at the Afipsky refinery has brought attention to the potential outcomes and advantages of pushing against the limits set by President Putin, as there is a possibility that a drone caused the incident.

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