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Tariq Siddiqui's picture
COO Upstream EP Advisors LLC

Oil & Energy | Business Development | Capital Projects | Offshore Wind -  Proven leader in offshore development and operations, with 25+ years’ expertise in managing business through cycles...

  • Member since 2021
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  • Nov 8, 2021
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Risk analysis and dynamic simulation models can help guide geologic storage project by providing information on potential risks associated with CO2 leakage and other adverse impacts.

KEY LEARNINGS

  1. The calibrated models provides confidence that available models can predict safe storage over the life of project.
  2. Key subsurface risks like; plume migrating out of Area of Review (AoR), CO2 leakage through faults/fractures, leakage through seal failure or through leaking legacy welbore can be quantitatively predicted using model.  
  3. Models also helps in planning and designing the Monitoring, Verification and Accounting (MVA) plans during site characterization, injection and closure phase.
  4. Dynamic modeling can quantitatively assess subsurface uncertainties and risk
  5. Response Surface Models (RSM) or Design of Experiments (DOE) have been successfully used in industry and by NETL to manage risks in CO2  storage project (research).
  6. Risk Assessment Matrix (RAM) tool has been effectively used in oil & gas and well adapted in CO2 project when used in conduction with dynamic modeling to identify and quantify impact of risks (Impact = Severity of risk x Likelihood of Risk)
  7. All high risk impacts must be reduced to a lower and acceptable levels.
  8. BowTie risk method can help control and mitigate risks before and after the top hazard (could be CO2 plume moving out of Area of review or AoR) occurred to avoid consequences

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

Risk management is critical to the success of CO2 storage project throughout its lifecycle. Both subsurface (technical) and aboveground  risks (non-technical) risks are important and must be managed. Especially the subsurface risk can be well quantified using dynamic reservoir modeling.

 

 

 

 

 

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