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Richard Brooks's picture
Co-Founder and Lead Software Engineer Reliable Energy Analytics LLC

Inventor of patent 11,374,961: METHODS FOR VERIFICATION OF SOFTWARE OBJECT AUTHENTICITY AND INTEGRITY and the Software Assurance Guardian™ (SAG ™) Point Man™ (SAG-PM™) software and SAGScore™...

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  • Feb 25, 2021
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Resource Adequacy has become the topic du jour for February thanks to the extreme weather event in Texas, and resulting power grid outages, last week. The report from WECC offers some valuable insights regarding changes to resource adequacy forecasting methodologies, under a transitioning energy grid.

Here are a few key takeaways, but I really do encourage you to read the entire report - I found it worthwhile.

ODITY
The One-Day-in-Ten-Years (ODITY) threshold represents a tolerance level of experiencing a loss of load event once every 10 years. The ODITY threshold translates to a 99.97% probability of being resource adequate over a 10-year period. [RJB this is different from LOLP]

there could be one to eight hours in which subregions will not be able to meet the planning reserve margin required to maintain the ODITY threshold.

Increasing levels of variable resources have led to inconsistent availability. As a consequence, resource planning becomes more challenging because a greater number of resources are not consistently available to meet load.

Behind-the-Meter resources, such as rooftop solar, also increase demand variability. Load growth is projected to stay relatively flat in the future due to the expected increase of behind-the-meter resources.

Historical approaches to resource planning, if unchanged, will result in a significant degradation of resource adequacy

Planning entities and their regulatory authorities should consider moving away from a fixed planning reserve margin to a probabilistically determined margin. As variability grows, a dynamic planning reserve margin will better ensure resource adequacy for all hours.

 

Richard Brooks's picture
Thank Richard for the Post!
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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Feb 25, 2021

Historical approaches to resource planning, if unchanged, will result in a significant degradation of resource adequacy

This is the key takeaway-- the way it's always been done won't work moving forward because the grid no longer looks the way it always has in terms of generation, and it's never going back. The nuance and changes from more DERs, VPPs, CCAs, etc. are changing the game, and RA must reflect that. 

Thanks for sharing this timely and informative report, Dick. 

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