Dr. Amal Khashab
October 25 2021
Yes, it could be reached .
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Question
PGE estimates 25% of peak demand will be met by distributed resources by 2030. Do you agree?
- Oct 19, 2021 11:59 am GMT
I was recently reading Portland General Electric's release about its future generation mix, and the following quote caught my eye:
By 2030, PGE estimates as much as 25% of the power needed on the hottest and coldest of days could come from customers and distributed energy resources (DERs), such as solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles.
Do you think that's a realistic timeframe and expectation? Is your utility operating under similar expectations-- or even more aggressive estimates on distributed generation / storage? Or do you see central generation as continuing to play it's dominant role through the end of the decade?
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October 21 2021
Solar and wind are becoming popular. Given their intermittency they must be associated with a corresponding increase in firm power that can be dispatched as needed, when it is needed. So it depends on how one calculates this 25% percentage.
My guess is: close attention should be taken when looking at "installed capacity" (IC) and "peak demand" (PD) - the trend for the metric IC/PD will increase and accordingly its CAPEX (capital expenditures) amortization per MWh delivered.
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October 21 2021
We see tremendous growth in DER based on recent research: Global DER Deployment Database https://guidehouseinsights.com/reports/global-der-deployment-database; DER in Commercial Buildings https://guidehouseinsights.com/reports/market-data-der-in-commercial-buildings
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October 20 2021
If the night of the coldest day of the year is counting on solar, that won’t work. And, in anticipation of a coldest day, the stationary and mobile(EV) batteries would need to be fully charged from “other-than solar“ generation resources like gas, hydro, utility-scale wind and nuclear.
If the hottest days of the year bring bright sunshine with high roof-top and utility-scale solar outputs, 25% of system peak is challenging, but achievable especially with a well-run investor owned utility like Portland General.
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October 19 2021
Do you think [25% electricity from distributed energy resources by 2030] is a realistic timeframe and expectation?
I hope not. In California, most new distributed generation is coming not from solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles, but diesel generators.
"Total diesel capacity in California is now big enough to power 15 percent of the state's electric grid, which has about an 80-GW capacity."
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