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Future power prices: way up!

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs, Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

  • Member since 2003
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  • Sep 30, 2021

Future power prices: way up!

The prevailing trend in the world, and in Brazil as well, is to encourage especially solar and wind energy.

The main justification is the reduction of emissions (replacing thermal plants) so necessary for the viability of the future of humanity.

The cost of these energies will be much more expensive. Each installed kW of solar energy, whether on roofs or on farms, produces about 110 kWh/month. Wind energy 290 kWh/month. Of course it depends on geography but I'm talking about order of magnitude.

The world had for many decades energy matrices in which each kW produced 360 kWh/month or even more!

In Brazil, for example, large hydroelectric plants, with very robust reservoirs, for each installed kW produce 500 kWh/month.

Then, there will be a need for a much higher installed power in kW than the current one, to meet the market demand.

In large numbers, with the current matrix, the installed generation power is about twice the maximum demand of the national systems. In the future, considering the massive introduction of wind and solar, it is likely that the need for installed capacity will be triple the maximum demand.

Investments in generation, transmission and distribution will have - accordingly - to be escalated.

And to sustain this new matrix, the consumers will have to pay the increased cost of amortizing the invested capital.


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Thank Rafael for the Post!
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