Extreme Cold Capacity Factor (ECCF)
- Feb 25, 2021 11:50 am GMT
I think we need to create ratings based on historical information for rating different generation types in extreme cold. I took a quick look at the graphs I have from 2012, 2014, 2019, and 2021 – a total of about 18 days and here is what my semi-scientific ratings would be. (Someone with access to a lot more data, and a lot more time needs to do this for real – there are probably 2 or 3 PhDs here or a couple of SBIR grants or maybe even a DOE contract)
Hydro-electric – 95%
Nuclear – 96%
Coal – 95%
Fuel oil – 90%
Natural gas – 50%
Wind – 11%
Solar – 3%
These are all the technologies that I have enough data to create a rating. Take the nameplate capacity and multiply by the extreme cold capacity factor (ECCF) and you have a number that will be the average hourly output during the 4–7-day event.
If you had 100 MW of each you would expect an aggregate average hourly production of 350 MW. Solar would be higher in daylight, but not produce at night, wind would be lower in the first day of the event and increase in the following days.
Someone needs to really dig into this and figure it out for real. I claim the trademark on this term.