Seb, more important than price swings is this unfortunate fact: because gray hydrogen is cheaper to produce than green, oil companies control the retail price - and the infrastructure. If the retail price of green becomes competitive and encourages investment in green hydrogen production, oil companies only need to lower the retail price of gray hydrogen. Green providers then have two choices: 1) go broke, or 2) re-market gray hydrogen as green.

Because ultimately all will be gray, whether it's labeled green, orange, or pink, hydrogen is just. another. fossil. fuel.

Excellent article, Seb. You bring out two important points that are widely overlooked. One is the role of prolonged dunkelflaute episodes this summer in the current spike in gas prices. Low production from wind and solar resources forced Europe to burn through a dangerous fraction of the stored gas needed to meet the upcoming winter heating season. Those stores need to be replenished pronto, or there will be deaths from freeing. Unfortunately, the gas supply is highly inelastic in the short term. The delays caused by fierce US opposition to Nordstream 2 haven't helped matters any.

The other point is the one you make in the title: Expensive gas = expensive hydrogen. That's obvious if the hydrogen is made by reforming of natural gas; what's overlooked is that it holds even when it's made by electrolysis of water using renewable energy. High gas prices can't affect the marginal cost of producing renewable energy. That cost is always zero. But they sure as hell do affect the spot market price of renewable energy. It's for the reason you state: if they're not locked in by a long term contract or the outright absence of a grid connection, no RE energy producer is going to sell power for green energy production at €40/MWh when it's going for €200/MWh on the spot market.

As long as RE is dependent on natural gas for backup when production is down, the cost of nominally "green" hydrogen production will be dependent on the price of natural gas.