Power-cost-trend is way up in Brazil
- Jul 19, 2018 2:02 pm GMT
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No one doubts that the Brazilian electrical system is complex. An extensive list of factors influence the cost of the power delivered.
But, fortunately, the National System Operator (Brazilian equivalent to ISO) publishes the weekly marginal cost of operations of the dispatch of electric power.
In the SE region, for example, the weekly average taken in the last twelve months indicates that the cost was R$ 375/MWh, at about USD 100/MWh.
This is a value that signals to the corporate world the real cost of electricity. That is, the trend of future prices points to an increase, assuming stability of last year's conditions. It is a conservative assumption because it is based on the current, anemic GDP that does not pressure the demand side of the equation.
Bottom line: better to draw a scenario of future prices on the rise. To illustrate, currently the power rates granted to ELETROPAULO (the country's largest power distributor) are at R$ 270/MWh for a typical corporate consumer that weighs 90% off-peak consumption and 10% on-peak.