NERC warns of tough summer

According to the NERC’s assessment, the regions’ vulnerability boil down to two main factors: the rise of intermittent resources and the likelihood of extreme weather events. 

Of the four at risk areas, California seems to be the worst off. The report mentions that even periods of normal peak demand risk depleting the state’s energy resources. This is especially concerning when you consider that these “once in a century” wildfires seem to burn every year now in Northern California. The assessment estimates that 10,185 MWh will go unmet this coming summer. 

California has added reserve power, but much of it is solar. NERC suggests it will be necessary to transfer capacity onto the balancing area to offset weaker solar generation in the evenings. 

After about half the state’s residents lost power in February, Texas heads into summer 2021 better prepared—but still very vulnerable. According to NERC, the Lonestar State has increased its on-peak planning reserve margins from 12.9% to 15.3%. Most of that jump has come by the way of new wind generation and battery storage. On a number of occasions in recent years, wind has failed Texas when the power was needed most.  

Luckily, things are not as dire in the midwest and New England. Both regions have enough resources for peak demand, however extreme weather events could exhaust them. NERC puts the possibility of such extreme events at 1 in 10. 

What can be done this summer to mitigate the possibility of disaster? Better communication is a good place to start. Load servicers need to work with reliability coordinators to review outage schedules and examine the potential needs for energy imports. Studies on the topic and generator agreements should be ironed out before it’s too late. 

Communication with customers is also important. Operators should practice calls for energy conservation and voltage conservation in places of elevated risk. These aren’t the sort of tools you want to rely on, but places like California don’t have many options. 

Longterm, utilities and operators must learn how to ensure reliability with ever increasingly complex resource portfolios. As the country continues its transition to renewables and simultaneously electrifies, things are only going to become more stressful. Planning must begin now.