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Mixed signals

image credit: Belo Monte (Xingu)
Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

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  • Feb 8, 2021
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Mixed signals

In the neighborhood where I live in the south zone of the city of São Paulo, at night there is no water supply due to a "rolling blackout" that has been in practice for months.

The Brazilian (official) power clearinghgouse systematically discloses that the average short-term power price this year will be R$ 96/MWh (1 USD = R$ 5,3). It would be a value well below the historical level. In January (a rainny season- that should fill the hydro reservoirs that feed 70% of the country's power matrix).it was over R$ 200/MWh!

In both cases, what is at stake is the level of the reservoirs and the consumption expectation. The volume stored in the southeastern region, the most important in the country in size, is below 25% although it is the middle of summer, when it is expected to be vigorously filled.

The data on the economy shows that the country is in recovery (GDP wise). So it is assumed that the consumption of electricity tends to increase.

Reservoirs will be stressed in this situation. The realistic expectation is that there will be a significant increase in the short-term energy price and not a decrease.

Mixed signals: too bad for the country, but who cares?

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Thank Rafael for the Post!
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