In partnership with PLMA, this group is for practitioners from energy utilities, solution providers, and trade allies to share load management expertise and explore innovative approaches to program delivery, pricing constructs, and technology adoption.

White Paper

Factoring Behind the Meter Generation into the Demand Forecast Algorithm: ISO New England and New York ISO Case Studies

Richard Brooks's picture
Co-Founder and Lead Software Engineer Reliable Energy Analytics LLC

Successful developer of Energy Industry B2B and Cyber security standards at North American Energy Standards Board (NAESB) ( since 1995; ANSI Meritorious Service Award Recipient;...

  • Member since 2018
  • 1,017 items added with 417,882 views

Access White Paper

This report aims to achieve the following objectives:
• Describe the current methodologies used by two ISO’s (ISO New England and the New York ISO) to “factor in” the “yin-yang effect” of Behind the Meter (BTM) Photovoltaic (PV) supply resources in load forecasting
• Stimulate industry discussion on the need for an industry wide standard methodology for load forecasting that consistently incorporates the impact of BTM PV and establishes agreed semantics and business practices
• Differentiate the “old concept” of Peak Demand, “maximum electric power consumption of all consumers at a given moment in time” and the newly introduced “Peak Power from Grid Resources” (PPGR), peak demand concept, which represents the maximum amount of supply expected from grid resources
• Introduce the need for an “Estimated Peak Ramp Rate” (EPRR) as a risk factor representing the rate at which the loss/addition of Solar supply can impact demand and the corresponding requirement on Grid Resources ramping response (both increase and decrease) over a defined period (perhaps 5 minute grain) to maintain balance and system frequency

Access White Paper


Spell checking: Press the CTRL or COMMAND key then click on the underlined misspelled word.
Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Jan 4, 2019

Great resource-- thanks for sharing, Richard. The paper notes "no attempt is made to ascertain the accuracy or quality of the methodology," but I was wondering if perhaps you had any personal thoughts or insights into the accuracy between the twho methods presented?

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 4, 2019

Thanks, Matt. Honestly, I couldn't find enough detailed information about the actual formulas used by each ISO to make any determination. I really think "someone" in indsutry, perhaps NERC or NPCC or another regional apower authority might be the best choice to lead the conversation to develop a standard methodology that is both comprehensive and transparent in its design. Then we'll all know how it works and might even be able to influece the design.

Thanks for your comment. Cheers, Dick

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Jan 28, 2019

It's not just ISO's that are having trouble managing Solar PV supply, here is another case in which a utility failed to properly plan for solar supply increases in Michigan

Get Published - Build a Following

The Energy Central Power Industry Network is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.

If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.

                 Learn more about posting on Energy Central »