Does forecast peak demand = forecast peak consumer demand - NO!
- Dec 18, 2018 3:49 pm GMT
Forecasting peak power demand has always been a bit of a guessing game, mostly driven by weather and climate conditions. A 2% margin of error was not uncommon when comparing forecast to actual electricity demand. But what does it really mean when an ISO publishes a load forecast with a "Peak Demand" number - does this represent the total expected high power demand for electricity within a load area or service territory?
The answer is NO.
I've been researching the various methods used by ISO's to compute their "peak demand" as part of their load forecasting function. As more Distributed Generation has increased the amount of power being generated, which the ISO typically has no visibility to, this "peak demand" number has morphed to be semantically closer to "Peak Power needed from Grid resources" (PPGR) as opposed to the actual peak power demand of all consumers of electricity.
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