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Does forecast peak demand = forecast peak consumer demand - NO!

Richard Brooks's picture
Co-Founder and Lead Software Engineer Reliable Energy Analytics LLC

Inventor of patent pending technology: METHODS FOR VERIFICATION OF SOFTWARE OBJECT AUTHENTICITY AND INTEGRITY and the Software Assurance Guardian™ (SAG ™) Point Man™ (SAG-PM™) software and...

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  • Dec 19, 2018 1:00 pm GMT
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Forecasting peak power demand has always been a bit of a guessing game, mostly driven by weather and climate conditions. A 2% margin of error was not uncommon when comparing forecast to actual electricity demand. But what does it really mean when an ISO publishes a load forecast with a "Peak Demand" number - does this represent the total expected high power demand for electricity within a load area or service territory?

The answer is NO.

I've been researching the various methods used by ISO's to compute their "peak demand" as part of their load forecasting function. As more Distributed Generation has increased the amount of power being generated, which the ISO typically has no visibility to, this "peak demand" number has morphed to be semantically closer to "Peak Power needed from Grid resources" (PPGR) as opposed to the actual peak power demand of all consumers of electricity.
 

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I hope to publish these findings before the new year and will share some thoughts on the risks of the status quo in forecasting "peak demand" using the current methods, as more distributed, behind the meter, generation comes online.

 

Richard Brooks's picture
Thank Richard for the Post!
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Matt Chester's picture
Matt Chester on Dec 19, 2018

Thanks for sharing, Richard-- I'm looking forward to the follow up on the findings from your research

Richard Brooks's picture
Richard Brooks on Dec 19, 2018

Thanks, Matt. I've also found your posts to be timely and informative. Good work!

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