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Water crisis, is already "behind"?

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Consultant energy affairs Self employed

Rafael Herzberg- is an independent energy consultant, self-employed (since 2018) based in São Paulo, Brazil* Focus on C level, VPs and upper managers associated to energy related info, analysis...

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  • Nov 14, 2021
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Water crisis, is already "behind"?

The Brazilian power clearinghouse presents, practically in real time, the value of the hourly spot of electric energy.

When I wrote this post, the spot was around R$ 70/MWh (USD 12/MWh), a reference of normality (green flag, no additional flag costs) with respect to the situation of reservoirs and balance between supply and demand.

More than 70% of the country's power matrix is hydro so this is super important! But ....there are two conflicting signals:

1. Will the flag of the water crisis be "lowered"?

This flag is associated with the higher costs of dispatching thermal power plants, way more expensive than the hydro ones. It would be consistent with the published spot price!

2. Will the thermal plants be shut down?

The National System Operator maintains the dispatch of thermal plants, characterizing the serious water situation (national reservoirs at only 25% of their nominal capacity).

What to believe?

Rafael Herzberg's picture
Thank Rafael for the Post!
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