
The Energy Collective Group
This group brings together the best thinkers on energy and climate. Join us for smart, insightful posts and conversations about where the energy industry is and where it is going.
Shared Link
Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets
Here are a few highlights from the EIA report; Don't look at this report if you're looking for a silver lining!
Creating energy market forecasts and projections for the short term, medium term, and long term is always a challenging task, and the current events caused by the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic are having broad impacts on macroeconomic activity, in general, and energy markets, in particular, that make creating these forecasts and projections all the more challenging. Some uncertainties are unavoidable in any forecast or projection, but the current environment heightens these uncertainties and creates additional issues that greatly complicate the analytic landscape.
COVID-19 and its mitigation efforts are significantly affecting energy demand in the short term and could continue to do so in the medium and even long term.
This unprecedented volatility in macroeconomic activity and related forecasts is likely to continue.
Further complicating matters is the issue of possible resurgences of the pandemic if a vaccine remains elusive or containment efforts prove inadequate.
EIA assumes U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 8.2% in 2020
Macroeconomic variables have large effects on domestic energy consumption in EIA’s energy demand models (Commercial, Residential, Industrial, and Transportation). Some examples of important medium- and long-term variables for energy demand modules include commercial floorspace (Commercial sector); energy intensive sector gross output (Industrial sector); and disposable income, employment, new vehicle sales, and gross output (Transportation sector).
The impact of these factors on business and consumer’s willingness and ability to resume pre-COVID-19 employment, shopping, and travel behaviors will largely determine the potential energy demand impacts.
Resurgence of the pandemic could further erode confidence and begin to permanently change consumption patterns, employment, and travel behavior.
Electricity supply in the short term is highly uncertain because of rapidly changing economic conditions.
the U.S. electric power sector is resilient and will not likely fundamentally change operations in the long term. The pandemic does add another layer of uncertainty and risk, and the lack of information and data make it difficult to understand the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation efforts on power generation in the years to come.
Trends and Expectations Surrounding the Outlook for Energy Markets
Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government
Discussions
No discussions yet. Start a discussion below.
Get Published - Build a Following
The Energy Central Power Industry Network is based on one core idea - power industry professionals helping each other and advancing the industry by sharing and learning from each other.
If you have an experience or insight to share or have learned something from a conference or seminar, your peers and colleagues on Energy Central want to hear about it. It's also easy to share a link to an article you've liked or an industry resource that you think would be helpful.
Sign in to Participate