Things to Ponder

When is it right to stop making ICE vehicles for a manufacturer?
It is a much harder question than most think:

It is a much harder and complex set of questions than most think…

1)     How will customers (by country and segment of the population) take to EVs? Will some segments be resistant to buying an EV?

2)     When will all the world be ready to charge EV’s?

3)     What will be the reaction to people of potential fires in garages and in other situations?

4)     Will people trust EVs, some are conflating self-driving (and the accidents) with being an electric vehicle?

5)     What regulations are in place, going in place to stop sales of EVs and will they be modified?

6)     Can the supply chains produce the parts (including batteries) to build 66-67 Million vehicles per year?

7)     Are their parts of the world that are not ready, and will not be ready for EVs?

8)     Are there segments of the market where an EV will not be able to support the needs (e.g., pickup trucks towing trailers 900+ miles a day with an 8 hour single sleep period) ? [yes it is a niche]

9)     Can EVs be competitive for pricing?

10) As the used EV market evolves, will there be cars in reasonable shape for 3rd and 4th buyers (these tend to be low-income households and social justice communities)?

11) Will alternative batteries evolve to provide a lower cost power pack that is not too much heavier than current power packs per kWh of power?

12) Will studies find health issues with EVs?

13) Will recycling evolve in a fashion that is good for the environment and close to circular?

14) Will electricity prices stay within reason when compared to other choices for fuels?

15) Will jobs evolve so that there are “good union jobs” in manufacturing available for all the workers in the auto industry who will be laid off (roughly 45% of the UAW jobs are power train jobs that will not be retained in the EV transition – even when you count battery and motor production)?

16) How long are the multi-year tax abatement contracts with the auto industry for plants and jobs, and will the manufacturers be forced to fulfill those agreements or pay back the billions of dollars in incentives/tax reduction?

17) Will battery repair/replacement costs start scaring people once it becomes common place (remember the exploding Tesla videos – because of the battery pack replacement costs) [https://lnkd.in/gkSfpgj2]?

18) …