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Slated retirements to cut US coal fleet to less than half 2015 capacity by 2035
Good to see coal retirements lining up. Coal has enjoyed a substantial bounce back in 2021 due to returning demand and higher NG prices but in the long run renewables will squeeze out coal.
Utilities are rapidly closing coal-fired power plants, and while 2020 and 2021 offer a relative reprieve from retirements compared to 2018 and 2019, utilities already have over 10 GW of announced retirement plans lined up in each of 2022 and 2023. Moreover, later years, such as 2028, are also already slated to host a relatively big wave of coal plant retirements.
At the start of 2015, the nation's coal fleet totaled 285.6 GW of capacity, according to Market Intelligence data. By the start of 2020, that fell to 228.8 GW, a decline of 19.9%. Closures already announced by power generators will drop that figure to 136.5 GW by 2035, or about 47.8% of the size of the fleet at the beginning of 2015.
US CO2 emissions will continue their rapid downward trend.
The chart below will have to change its Y axis to accommodate future retirements.
Slated retirements to cut US coal fleet to less than half 2015 capacity by 2035
Utilities have made retirement plans for much of the U.S. coal fleet in the coming years, and observers expect the trend to accelerate in the current market and political environment.
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Andrew,
Although its great to see that you have replaced some of your coal with renewables over the last decade - I have to agree with Bob here. You guys still use a LOT of coal.
Maybe once you swap out another 50TWh of coal for renewables then folks can start thinking about Australia as a good example.
Australia is a place where things are happening in renewables (in spite of the national Government)
It is installing PV/wind 3X faster per capita than the USA.
Australian PV/wind deployment took off in 2018. 99% of new gen capacity is PV/wind. The renewable electricity is just starting to make a difference.
Wholesale spot prices halved.
Lots of investment in batteries and new pumped hydro.
At +9 TWh per year of new PV/wind, Australia is tracking towards 40% PV/wind electricity in the mid-2020s. Fast by global standards, but not fast enough to meet climate goals.
The state of South Australia is tracking towards 100% PV/wind in 2024-25.
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