Renewables beat fossil fuels - Ember

Poland definitely seems like it's going to be the trickiest part of Europe to ween off of fossil fuels-- I wonder what it will take for their deeply coal-entrenched economy to truly embrace the transition

I love to look at these curves.

RE is smilling

coal is frowning

:)

I notice how you show gas down by 6% in Europe during a global pandemic, but coal statistics only for Germany. Clever, but not clever enough.

Germany has never been more dependent on fossil fuel gas in its history - or on foreign oligarchy Russia to deliver it. That statement will be as true in 2030 as it is today:

"Germany has also ensured a relatively high level of natural gas supply security, despite a heavy reliance on imports (93% of supply). The Russian Federation is by far the largest gas exporter to Germany, followed by the Netherlands and Norway.

Although the German government is focused on a massive expansion of renewables, the phasing out of both nuclear and coal generation will increase Germany’s demand for natural gas in power generation, including as a backup fuel source for renewables; hydrogen derived from renewable sources holds potential as a longer-term solution.

The uptick in demand will increase Germany’s already-high call on natural gas imports. Moreover, at the same time that Germany’s own production of gas is small and declining, its gas imports from European sources are also set to fall in the coming years, especially from the Netherlands."

https://www.iea.org/reports/germany-2020

The charade that renewables are useful for providing energy security, that they are "beating" coal in Germany, is about as convincing as it is in Ohio. Is replacing one fossil fuel with another progress? I don't think so.

Mark Twain: "There are four kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, statistics, and renewables" - or something like that.

I´m a bit surprised that France seems to be backing off nuclear so quickly, as indicated.  And there does not seem to be an acccompanying increase in natural gas use.  Will be interesting to see what happens post-pandemic.

Regardless,  the pace of reducing its nuclear dependence is accelerating:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-edf/france-could-shut-next-two-nuclear-reactors-sooner-than-expected-idUSKBN1ZK0RL

"France’s oldest two reactors at the Fessenheim nuclear plant will stop production in February and June this year."

"“If certain conditions relating to electricity prices and the evolution of the European electricity market are met, the closure of two additional reactors could happen in 2025-2026,” the public consultation document on energy policy said

Hmm, much of the changes in the European electricity market seem to be driven by the pandemic; it seems wrong to be so gleeful about the situation: hundreds of thousands of people have died and hundreds of millions are in financial peril, but at least the renewables numbers look good?

Also, the EMBER source article seems to be giving credit to renewables for lucky weather.  The output surge in hydro is clearly weather related, and the surge in windpower is likely mostly due to weather.

The huge dip in nuclear output in France is attributed by the author to staff shortages at plants, but the data clearly shows nuclear is being used as a source of flexibility to accommodate a large demand decrease (~ 20%), presumably pandemic related and temporary, as well as a hydro increase.  (There is a whole section on the need for more flexibility in the European grids).

The German numbers reflect a more modest 10% demand decrease.  In their case, coal is the source of flexibility, but it apparently fell short of the need, because they had a big increase in the number of hours with negative electricity prices (nearly 5% of the time), as well as a big increase in imports (perhaps as a result of negative prices in neighboring countries).

The article does close with a more somber assessment that installation of new solar and windpower installation will be lower this year, and the previous pace needs to double or triple to meet modest climate goals.