Renewable Forecast 2023

This article presents a forecast of the renewable energy share as a percent of the total energy supply. It was done with science kit learn through python programming. The objective is to show a possible scenario considering the installed capacity since 1990s up to date and what are the future projects that have been already announced.

To begin with, it is important to consider that the culture of energy efficiency and clean energy sources is beginning to spread worldwide. Societies are trying to reach their increase of demand installing new renewable capacity, while promoting people to implement energy efficiency measures. These mechanisms are of great importance to face climate change, while generating new job positions and ensuring energy access.

The increase of installed capacity of renewables can be addressed to the drop on the costs of renewables especially in PV and wind turbines, the crash of oil and the shift of investors looking for new technology assets. Since 2015 the curve exhibits a linear behavior, whereas from 2006 until 2015 it had an exponential trend. Based on the International Energy Agency the share of renewables in 2019 was around 13.7% of the total energy supply, considering a fast forward scenario, after the covid-19 crisis and that countries will maintain their sustainability targets, it can be expected to increase up to 14.5% in 2023.

Energy demand has been increasing over the years, with lots of effort to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with an increase of the share of both nuclear and renewable. The latter are attractive for investors due to being carbon emission free (for the electrical generation), helping to mitigate climate change, creating more job positions, and also promoting technological development. In contrast, the installment of new fossil fuel capacity is falling.

Many oil companies who shifted to energy companies, are now in the renewable energy market, adapting themselves to the future of electrification. This diversification of assets reduces the risks of investment and also adds more value to their portfolio.

Governments need to keep on working with the development of clean energy policies, that consider the implementation of new disruptive and alternative technologies in the fuel, gas, and electric market. Countries will need to work together in order to reach Net Zero target and it is advisable for them to do it in already established political alliances such as the European Union, the Commonwealth, etc. Allowing the private sector to have a clear, mid and long-term strategy with frameworks that support private investment.

In conclusion, renewables share is expected to increase, and governments will need to guarantee investors a set of safety measures for their capital. It is also important to consider the priority of working on stimulus plans for this share to increase with a more accelerated pace.