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Joe Deely's picture
Partner Deely Group

Involved with high-tech for last 30 years. Interested in energy.

  • Member since 2018
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  • Oct 23, 2021
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Solar continues to explode in TX. Obviously, a lot of the 100 GW of solar on ERCOT queue will not get built but a decent chunk of it will... My estimates below.

Solar will provide about 4% of total ERCOT generation  in 2021.  By 2024, Solar share of ERCOT grid will rise to about 15%.  

Solar Share

  • 2017 - 0.63%
  • 2018 - 0.86%
  • 2019 - 1.15%
  • 2020 - 2.29%
  • 2021 - 3.8% (Est)
  • 2022 - 7.5% (Est)
  • 2023 - 11.5% (Est)
  • 2024 - 15% (Est)

 

 

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Bob Meinetz's picture
Bob Meinetz on Oct 23, 2021

"Solar continues to explode in TX."
 

You're kidding, right?

Delusional "Exploding" Solar in Texas

Joe Deely's picture
Joe Deely on Oct 25, 2021

I get it Bob - its tough to visualize exponential growth when you are used to the 10+ year cycle for nuclear construction. 

 Here are a few charts that might help you. First, below is generation data on ERCOT so far in 2021.  As I stated above in 2020 solar generation for full year was 2.29%.  So growth for 2021 will be 70-80% - in other words explosive.

 

 

What about the next couple of years?  Currently ERCOT has about 7GW of solar installed. If you want to see future installation - go to ERCOT's Capacity Changes by Fuel Type Chart.  Below is the Sept version of that chart.  So 2-3x current capacity by end of 2022. In other words, explosive growth.

If you go to that link you can also see a listing of all the projects that are currently scheduled to come online over the next few years. Of course, new projects are being added to this list almost weekly. Below is sample showing projects that are due before next summer.

 

As usual Bob, your view is looking backwards.  You can see where the puck has been but not where it is going.  As I said, in my article-  solar will be 15% of generation on ERCOT grid for 2024 up from 2.29% in 2020. Truly explosive growth. 

 

One more thing to add - solar generation on ERCOT grid in 2024 will be greater than coal generation. That's where the puck is going.

Bob Meinetz's picture
Bob Meinetz on Oct 25, 2021

"As usual Bob, your view is looking backwards."

That I am, Joe. I'm looking at decades of failed promises for renewable energy, and wondering why anyone might believe doing the same thing over and over again will eventually produce a different result.

I'm wondering why the coach of a third-rate college hockey team might be foolish enough to believe, in a game against the Chicago Blackhawks, the puck might ever go where he wanted it to go.

Renewables just don't work that well, Joe, and all your charts, and extrapolations, and daydreams about ERCOT in 2024 don't amount to squat. There's no more time to waste.

Germany 'set for biggest rise in greenhouse gas emissions for 30 years'

Joe Deely's picture
Joe Deely on Oct 25, 2021

 

Renewables just don't work that well, Joe, and all your charts, and extrapolations, and daydreams about ERCOT in 2024 don't amount to squat. 

You can stick your head as deep in the sand as you want but 2021 data shows that TX solar is up 72.5% YTD

Plus that list of projects I show thru end of 2022 are all already under construction. No extrapolation.

 

So, we have solar generation climbing rapidly and more projects being built. Seems to be working pretty well to me.

 

All that said Bob, I do appreciate your negative spin on renewables - because as we know, whatever you say - the opposite is sure to happen. Sort of like the Bizarro episode on Seinfeld.

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