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Price Forecast With Trend Analysis

Devashish Baranwal's picture
Senior Manager Oriana Power Private Limited

Myself a Logistics & Supply Chain Professional with having more than 12+ Years of Experience. Regarding the experience with Energy Industry it is less than 5 Years

  • Member since 2021
  • 3 items added with 734 views
  • Jun 17, 2021 3:50 pm GMT

Dear Members
Hope You are doing well during this tough time for all.
I am looking for Price Trend Forecast of Solar PV Modules, Steels and other commodities till 2025 or more. It is going to help all of us to understand how Solar Energy Installations is going to contribute in the world in achieving the World Net Zero Target of 2050. 

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Here in South Carolina, USA price givebacks are currently being offered for solar use and conversions. To my understanding, the hard hit is when battery use requires replacements and maintenance costs. Once the giveback money from solar energy supportive companies runs out, the initial costs will be spread out and absorbed in payment plans. There is no indication that this will change the Price values, only a decision that customers (users) will support more of the cost burdens as the PVs market stabilizes. 

When I discuss solar related options for my consulting clients (industrial, commercial and institutional energy users) I use USD 1 000 per installed kW as the capital expenditure to build the whole system including all costs

Since inflation is back, I have been assuming that the present real value of the investment will remain about the same. It means that future price reductions offered by the solar suppliers will be off set by inflation. 

Then of course the insolation of the specific location in consideration plays an important role because the power prices out of a solar system depend primarily on the amortization cost referred to the kWh produced by the system.

Just to give you an overall picture, here in Brazil, where I am based, 1 kW typically produces roughly 20%. It means that 1 kW is able to deliver on a monthly basis 140 kWh of electric power.

If you need more assistance I am open and available to help you!

Devashish Baranwal's picture
Devashish Baranwal on Jun 19, 2021

Hello Mr. Rafael

Greetings & Hope you are doing well.

First of all I would like to thank you for addressing my query.
As we all know that the World is still fighting with the Pandemic. And as of now, we don't know till when this On & Off Industry (lockdown & un-lock activity) will continue which is hindering the mining (metals), production (processing) and supply chain (sky rocketing ocean freight & distribution to match the demand).

I am curious to know about the Projection of Solar Industry for next 5 years. As we all can see and realized that, Solar is the cheapest and easily available renewable energy source for all especially for the South Asian & African countries. And if we can see the last 1 year price trend for Steel, Copper, Aluminium, PV Module & Inverter prices which broke all the records of Price Escalation. Solar Developers like us are bleeding with the signed PPAs as clients were not ready to listen anything. Either we have to do project at loss or withdraw the same.


Rafael Herzberg's picture
Rafael Herzberg on Jun 23, 2021

Very challenging situation you are facing. I hope you will be able to enter in an agreement with your clients. By the way, how about going for a mediation? I mean, given the circumstances, it makes sense to discuss the new situation and developing jointly (both parties) a solid, consistent way out of this unbalanced contract.

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